| The rapid development and evolution of information technology have greatly reduced the necessity of traditional financial intermediation.As one of the most representative Internet finance models,P2 P online lending has developed rapidly in the past few years.Relying on diversified Internet platforms,P2 P business has cost advantages and information advantages,which enriches the products and levels of the financial market,broadens the scope of financial services to a certain extent,and improves the efficiency of resource allocation.At the same time,P2 P online lending industry also has the problem of brutal growth and lack of effective supervision,and its own risks may quickly spread to other financial sectors and real economy through money market and credit market.In 2013,the end of 2015 and the end of 2017 to 2018,P2 P industry has experienced three large-scale problem event,the investors and market confidence in the financial innovation were hit by a huge P2 P network borrowing a series of economic and social events caused serious instability,threat to financial security and social order that nots allow to ignore,also on the legal regulation and government management duties of performance of the proposed new challenges.Financial stability is the foundation of financial security and the guarantee of sound and stable development of the national economy and long-term social stability.Its importance is self-evident.Therefore,it is urgent to study the impact of P2 P online lending on financial stability,which has important theoretical and practical significance.This paper mainly adopts the methods of literature research,inductive summary and abstract deduction,theoretical analysis and empirical test.The theoretical basis of this paper is derived from information asymmetry theory,long tail theory,"secondary disintermediation" theory,financial fragility theory and regulatory arbitrage theory.This paper mainly carries out the research work of this topic along the following lines.Firstly,the literature in related fields,including financial stability and P2 P lending,is reviewed and the research focus of this paper is clarified.Secondly,based on the analysis of the overall development status of P2 P online lending industry,this paper summarizes and expounds the impact of the development of P2 P online lending industry on financial stability,which involves financial institutions,financial markets and financial infrastructure.Thirdly,combined with the previous literature,comb out a relatively comprehensive connotation of financial stability framework,based on this framework will weigh the stability of the financial index is divided into three level index,respectively for financial institutions to run smoothly,financial market running smoothly,to resist external shocks,financial markets and the three first-level indicators subdivided into 12 basic indicators,from the Angle of the degree of impact on the financial stability to calculate the weight of each index,selecting in March 2011-30 September 2018 issue of quarterly data,using principal component analysis method of synthetic index of financial stability.Based on the synthetic financial stability index,the linear regression method is used to quantitatively test the effect of P2 P lending on financial stability.Fourthly,starting from the classical theory,the chain mechanism of the influence of P2 P online lending on financial stability is systematically clarified,which is investigated from the perspectives of financing,monetary policy,risk spillover and regulatory arbitrage.The influence mechanism of P2 P online lending system on financial stability is empirically tested by using vector autoregressive VAR model and time-varying Copula model.Fifth,based on the block chain technology and big data technology,this paper presents an optimization scheme of P2 P online lending based on the stability of financial infrastructure,and focuses on the application of block chain in the field of online lending credit investigation and the application of big data in the field of online lending risk early warning.Sixth,based on the above analysis,the paper proposes feasible countermeasures and Suggestions for the development of P2 P lending,so as to provide theoretical reference for the formulation of relevant policies.Through in-depth study of this article,the conclusion mainly includes the following aspects: firstly,in general,financial stability index of the trajectory of broadly in line with the reality of China's economic development,China has always showed a trend of fluctuations in the financial stability degree,but in a zero or more years,shows that under the long-term trend in our country to keep the state of financial stability.Secondly,the empirical results show that P2 P online lending has a negative impact on financial stability.Specifically,the development of P2 P online lending will reduce the stability of financial institutions;It has a lag effect on the financial market and can improve the stability of the financial market.The effect of P2 P on the ability to resist external shocks is not significant.Thirdly,the theoretical mechanism of P2 P network lending's influence on financial stability is clarified from the aspects of financing,monetary policy,risk spillover and regulatory arbitrage.The empirical research shows that P2 P network lending has a positive effect on financing in a short term,and this effect tends to moderate as time goes by.P2 P online lending has a negative impact on the implementation of monetary policy in a short term.There is almost no risk spillover effect in P2 P lending market,stock market and interbank lending market.This is mainly because of P2 P lending size for a small proportion in the whole financial market,the market structure of the differences,institutional barriers make P2 P lending market and there was a big difference in other financial markets,so the quantitative analysis of the point of view of the present network lending market is difficult to cause systemic risk exposure of the whole financial system in our country.However,due to the large number of investors,borrowers and institutions involved in P2 P online lending platforms,their risk transmission effect and adverse economic and social impact should still attract the attention of regulators and researchers.The innovation points of this paper are mainly reflected in the following aspects: first,this paper combines the research on financial stability with the dynamic development and change of P2 P online lending,which has a new perspective;Secondly,a financial stability index evaluation index system close to the reality in China was constructed to systematically clarify the influence effect and mechanism of P2 P online lending on financial stability from the theoretical and empirical levels,enrich and expand the research framework of Internet finance,and enrich the theoretical content related to financial stability and financial security.Thirdly,the paper puts forward the application plan of using block chain technology to improve the credit investigation system of network lending and building the early warning system of network lending risk based on big data technology,which has practical reference significance for maintaining the stability of financial infrastructure. |
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