Expectation Management Of RMB Exchange Rate In The Process Of RMB Internationalization

In economic globalization,promoting the internationalization of the RMB has become one of China's important national strategy.On October 1,2016,the RMB was officially incorporated into the SDR,marking an important step in the internationalization of the RMB.In addition,China's "One Belt,One Road" strategy is also conductive to the internationalization of the RMB.With the gradual acceleration of the internationalization of RMB,the function of RMB as the world currency has begun to emerge which brings the impact on international pricing,settlement,transactions and reserves.The realization of various monetary functions will directly or indirectly affect the RMB exchange rate and the forward exchange rate,and then shape different exchange rate expectations,affecting trade,investment and international capital flows.In turn,it will promote or hinder the realization of the currency internationalization process.Based on the background of RMB internationalization,this dissertation focuses on the management of RMB exchange rate expectation in the process of currency internationalization.Starting from the management of exchange rate expectation,this dissertation looks for an effective management mode of exchange rate expectation to promote RMB internationalization.Studying the effect of exchange rate expectation management and the influence of its tools is an important basis for effective exchange rate management and RMB internationalization.Exchange rate is an important hub of RMB internationalization.It is of great significance to discuss the management of exchange rate expectation in the process of currency internationalization.Firstly,studying the two-way relationship and interaction between exchange rate expectation and currency internationalization can develop the contemporary theory of currency internationalization;secondly,discussing the management of exchange rate expectation in the process of RMB internationalization can enrich the theory of RMB exchange rate management;finally,it can strengthen and guide the practice of exchange rate management,and explore the practice of RMB expectation management in the context of currency internationalization.It will help to cope with the turbulence in the international financial market and steadily promote the reform of the exchange rate system.The main content of this dissertation are as follows:The first part is introduction.This part first explains the research background and significance of exchange rate expectation management in the process of RMB internationalization.Then it elaborates on the research ideas and methods,and finally points out its innovation and shortcomings.Chapter One is theoretical basis and literature review.This chapter first introduces the theory of RMB internationalization,exchange rate theory and rational expectation theory in turn.Then it combs and reviews literature in different topics,revealing the problems and shortcomings of the existing research,and explains the importance of RMB exchange rate expectation management.The second chapter is concerned with the stage characteristics and attributes of RMB exchange rate expectation.This chapter is divided into three sections: the first section focuses on the measurement methods of exchange rate expectation,and then it compares and analyses the advantages and disadvantages of these methods.The second section studies the exchange rate expectation dynamics by using the econometric model and carries out the empirical analysis in stages.Finally,it classifies and verifies the RMB exchange rate expectation,and empirically tests the types of exchange rate expectation.The third chapter is related to the demand,goal and effect analysis of exchange rate expectation management in the process of RMB internationalization.Firstly,the demand of exchange rate expectation management is analyzed including the supervision and restraint of exchange rate formation mechanism on the formation of direct intervention,the international experience of expectation management as macroeconomic management,and the feasibility of exchange rate expectation management to alleviate international economic and trade frictions.It further states clearly that the target of exchange rate expectation management is to promote the internationalization of RMB.Then,it uses VAR model,TVP-SV-VAR model and hybrid innovation TVP-SV-VAR model to study the impact of exchange rate expectation management on RMB internationalization and exchange rate growth.The fourth chapter deals with the tools and effects of the expected management of RMB exchange rate.Firstly,it focuses on the impact of exchange rate communication on exchange rate expectation,including the impact of exchange rate communication measurement,channels and exchange rate communication on exchange rate level and fluctuation;secondly,it studies the impact of improving the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism on exchange rate expectation;finally,it empirically analyses the impact of exchange rate management policy adjustment on exchange rate expectationThe fifth chapter is about learning lessons from the international experience in exchange rate expectation management.This chapter summarizes the exchange rate expectation management experiences of US dollar,Mark and Japanese yen in the process of internationalization in order to provide useful reference and inspiration for the exchange rate expectation management of RMB in China.Chapter Six is the conclusion part and suggestions for strengthening exchange rate expectation management.Firstly,the conclusions of the previous chapters are summarized.Then,based on the results of this study,suggestions on exchange rate expectation management are put forward in different aspects,namely perfecting RMB exchange rate formation mechanism,diversifying exchange rate expectation guidance methods,strengthening the coordination of internal and external policies and cross-market management.