Research On The Economic Cycle From The Perspective Of Credit

The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008 triggered global financial turmoil,this crisis once again put the traditional economic cycle theory into an awkward situation,and triggered the British Queen Elizabeth's question,why no one found the crisis coming? Looking back at the crisis,we find that credit expansion has contributed to the development of this economic cycle,which has led mainstream macroeconomics to rethink the direction of economic cycle theory,that is,the relationship between credit and economic cycle.The theoretical analysis framework of mainstream macroeconomics has always excluded financial factors,and because of the complexity of financial factors,it is difficult to integrate financial factors into the mainstream cycle theory model,thus hindering the more in-depth study of the relationship between credit and economic cycle.With the general reflection,the mainstream academic circles have included credit,money and other financial factors in the study of economic cycle theory,and have carried out theoretical improvement and practical summary around the relationship between credit and economic cycle.In general,the current research on economic cycle theory is still carried out under the theoretical framework of general equilibrium analysis,and the basic assumptions of its microscopic theoretical model are not consistent with reality.There is a big deviation between the results analyzed by the economic cycle theory model and the actual economic development,so the current academic circles still lack the economic cycle theory model with explanatory power.Therefore,in order to better understand the mechanism of economic cycle occurrence and the role of credit in the process of economic cycle development,the paper introduces the research paradigm and micro-theory foundation of Austrian school on the basis of combing the previous research results of the economic cycle theory.Therefore,the paper tries to construct a complete economic cycle theory framework from prosperity to depression,and establish a connection between micro theory and macro phenomenon to better understand the causes and processes of economic cycle,so as to adopt targeted economic policies to deal with the impact of economic cycle change caused by credit expansion.The main research contents are as follows:The first chapter asks questions about the study of the economic cycle,which is intended to explain why the study of the economic cycle should be carried out.Secondly,the practical background and theoretical background of economic cycle theory are explained,and the practical significance and theoretical significance of economic cycle theory research are expounded at the same time.Then,put forward the research ideas and methods of this paper as well as the main contents of the study,and construct the logical framework of the article.Finally,the paper summarizes the innovation points and shortcomings of the research.The second chapter introduces the evolution and development of economic cycle theory.Thetheoretical development of economic cycle is divided into four periods,that is,the early nineteenth century,the early twentieth century,the 1930 s to the end of the 1960 s and the 1970 s to the present.There is a clear understanding of the development of economic cycle theory,so as to better grasp the focus of economic cycle theory research.The third chapter first makes a clear definition of the economic cycle,expounds the purpose and task of the economic cycle research,and introduces three facts in the economic cycle research.Then,it summarizes and combs the results of the study on the types of economic cycles so far.Then it puts forward the division of the economic cycle stage and the selection of indicators to measure the economic cycle.Finally,the macroeconomic characteristics of the economic cycle are described,and on this basis,the empirical facts of the economic cycle are analyzed.The fourth chapter first determines the methodological perspective of the thesis research,that is,personal perspective and subjective perspective,and the analysis of economic theory is based on the methodology characterized by human behavior.Then,the paper analyzes and explains the basic theoretical premise of the Austrian school of economics,which includes four aspects:knowledge,time,competition and spontaneous order.Then,the paper introduces the theory of complex adaptive system,and applies the idea of complex adaptive system theory to the analysis of economic development process,emphasizes the initiative and adaptability of the actors in the economic system and the coordination of the interaction between the actors,analyzes the functional coupling relationship between the economic activities of the actors,so as to build a bridge between microeconomic theory and macroeconomic phenomena.The fifth chapter first expounds the microeconomic theory which deduces the economic cycle theory,including the principle of time preference,the formation mechanism of money-price,the theory of entrepreneur and the structure of capital and production.Then,the paper analyzes the actors in the economic system,and puts forward the key assumptions of theoretical derivation,divides the economic actors into financial sector,consumer sector and production sector,and analyzes the elements composition,behavior objectives and economic functions of the three sectors respectively.Finally,based on the theoretical basis and assumptions of the first two parts,a complete framework of economic cycle theory analysis is constructed.Chapter six firstly summarizes the research conclusions of the economic cycle theory analysis framework,and deduces the enlightenment and policy suggestions for different economic cycle development stages from the economic cycle theory analysis framework.Finally,the possible development direction of future research is prospected.