Research On Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism In The Process Of Interest Rate Liberalization In China

The Transmission Mechanism of monetary policy has always been a key issue in monetary policy research.Especially for China,which is in the process of interest rate liberalization and economic structure transformation and upgrading,with the gradual progress of interest rate liberalization and the continuous improvement of relevant systems,the influence mode of Chinese Central Bank's monetary policy on macro economy is also in the process of constant adjustment.It is worth noting that compared with the theoretically stable financial system and perfect policy control framework,the adjustment,optimization and upgrading of Chinese financial system at the beginning of this century is only in its infancy,and there is a state of mutual division among various markets.Floating space is severely limited,and financial liberalization has greater room for improvement and improvement possibilities.Various reasons make the Transmission channels and Transmission Mechanism of Chinese monetary policy have potential phase characteristics during this period.Therefore,under the specific policy framework of Chinese interest rate marketization process,from the perspective of the potential stage characteristics of Chinese monetary policy Transmission channels and Transmission Mechanism,the Chinese Central Bank's monetary policy control objectives and the evolution of key policies have been explored as well as monetary policy Transmission channels.The influence of Transmission Mechanism can not only further analyze Chinese monetary policy control channels and control modes,but also provide effective theoretical guidance and empirical tests for Chinese interest rate marketizationprocess.For this reason,this article combines the staged characteristics of Chinese macroeconomic development and focuses on the balance sheet channels,financial institution credit channels,interest rate control and deposit insurance channels,and deeply explores the monetary policy Transmission channels,Transmission speed and policy implementation effects.Analyze the influencing factors of the Central Bank's monetary policy Transmission Mechanism in the process of interest rate marketization.This has implications for greatly reducing the possibility of systemic financial risks arising and accumulating in the process of comprehensively deepening the reform of the financial system during the new normal period,and for promoting Chinese macroeconomic development goals to achieve stable and sustained growth at a medium to high speed level.It will have important theoretical value and practical significance.The full text is divided into 6 chapters for researching.The first chapter is the introduction.It first introduces the background of Chinese current macroeconomic development and proposes the need for research on the Mechanism of monetary policy Transmission,which constitutes the logical starting point of this article.Furthermore,this chapter summarizes the Transmission channels of monetary policy at multiple levels according to the different characteristics of the Transmission paths of monetary policy,and systematically analyzes the policy Transmission mechanism,Transmission range and Transmission effect of different Transmission channels of monetary policy,laying a theoretical foundation for the subsequent research.Furthermore,this chapter also conducts a detailed theoretical combing and literature analysis on the specific issue of interest rate marketization in different countries and the basic facts of the evolution of monetary policy Transmission Mechanism in the process of interest rate marketization in different countries,especially in the process of Chinese interest rate marketization.The choice of the intermediary target of monetary policy and the transition process,and differentscholars have made a detailed summary and review of the relevant research on the monetary policy framework and Transmission theory in the process of Chinese interest rate marketization.On the basis of the previous research status,it points out the key issues and research purposes of this article,and pave the way for the empirical research later.The second chapter begins to enter the empirical research stage of the article.From the perspective of the mutual influence of policies,this chapter explores the impact of policy uncertainty on the effect of Chinese monetary policy control in the process of interest rate marketization,using time changes that include potential thresholds.The parametric vector autoregressive model empirically studies the response of Chinese monetary policy to the impact of economic uncertainty.The analysis shows that the uncertainty of Chinese economy and trade is obviously rising.The current trade uncertainty is the main cause of economic uncertainty,and the uncertainty as a whole is counter-cyclical,which has a negative impact on economic development.The actions and decisions of the US government are the most important factor causing uncertainty.At this stage,the trade frictions provoked by the US are the main cause of uncertainty.Empirical research results show that,in the face of rising uncertainty,Chinese monetary policy responds very quickly to economic and trade uncertainties,and uncertainty often leads to loose monetary policies.During periods of economic stability,monetary policy has the least degree of response to economic and trade uncertainty shocks,and increases in the period of financial crises,and has the greatest degree of response in periods of trade friction.Chapter 3 to Chapter 5 are the decomposition research on the Transmission channels of monetary policy in the process of interest rate marketization.This part innovatively combines the different levels of monetary policy Transmission channels with the specific policy structure and economic situation facing China at this stage,and further explores how Chinese implemented and unimplemented interest ratemarketization policies have affected different channels under specific economic backgrounds.The effect of conduction Mechanism and conduction mechanism.The third chapter starts from the perspective of the broad credit channel of monetary policy,decomposes the scale of social financing into three credit expansion channels:credit,off-balance-sheet financing and direct financing,and empirically studies the broad credit Transmission effect of Chinese monetary policy.The results show that credit dominates the scale of social financing in the medium and long term.The Transmission of Chinese monetary policy in the broad credit channel is still dominated by credit,followed by off-balance sheet financing,and direct financing has the weakest effect.With the advancement of interest rate marketization,the intensity and speed of the Transmission of monetary policy to broad credit have been significantly improved,and in-depth structural reforms,interest rate unification,and substantial marketization should be promoted.Combining research results and comparative analysis with existing literature,this chapter conducts a further theoretical discussion on the volume-price transformation of Chinese monetary policy,and proposes to construct a new “price-based,price-based,Reference quantity” monetary policy volume-price collocation control paradigm.The fourth chapter of the research will start from the balance sheet recession factors in Chinese macro economy and the continuous advancement of interest rate marketization,which has led to the Central Bank's monetary policy "dilemma",using the DSGE model that includes balance sheet recession factors.To quantify the degree of Chinese interest rate marketization,and then analyze the phased influence mechanism of the balance sheet decline on the Mechanism of monetary policy control.The research results show that,on the one hand,when the balance sheet recession factor is considered in the model system,the effect of tightening monetary policy on macroeconomic variables is correspondingly strengthened,and the regression time of related variables on the steady state of the economic system isextended and increased the uncertainty of the Central Bank's monetary policy regulation;on the other hand,when the balance sheet recession and changes in the degree of interest rate marketization are considered in the model framework,the increase in the degree of interest rate marketization will increase the degree of response to the relevant macroeconomic variables in the model.Increasing the speed at which variables return to a steady state.In other words,the continuous advancement of interest rate marketization will help improve the Transmission Mechanism and control effect of the tightening monetary policy.The research in Chapter 5 will start from the "dual-track" interest rate generation model of Chinese interest rate market,and use the DSGE model to analyze Chinese dual-track interest rate generation model,the degree of interest rate regulation and marketization,and the deposit insurance system and other interest rate marketization processes.Operational research,focusing on the impact of different measures in the process of interest rate marketization and the improvement of financial market mechanisms on the Transmission Mechanism of Chinese monetary policy.Studies have shown that the control of interest rates by the Central Bank has weakened the regulatory effects of conventional monetary policy,and at the same time restrained the regular fluctuations of the macro economy and reduced economic vitality.Under the premise of the continuous development of my country's interest rate marketization process,the development of interest rate marketization process can significantly improve the Transmission Mechanism of the Central Bank's conventional monetary policy and release market potential.The gradual abolition of interest rate control and the gradual return of the "dual-track" interest rate generation mechanism to a market-based generation mechanism is an important part of promoting the marketization of Chinese interest rates and improving the Mechanism of monetary policy regulation.The empirical research in Chapter 6 is to test the transmission mechanism ofmonetary policy under different degrees of interest rate liberalization in China.After exploring the Transmission Mechanism and policy effects of various channels in the process of interest rate marketization,this article will finally focus on the real problem of the Central Bank's delay in advancing the dual-track merger of market and planning after the opening of the deposit interest rate ceiling.The gradual marketization of interest rates and the overall effect of monetary policy after full marketization are studied,and corresponding forecasts and prospects are given for the advancement of Chinese interest rate marketization in the future.In terms of macro Transmission,the gradual reform of interest rate marketization can effectively optimize the Mechanism of interest rate Transmission.However,if it immediately enters a state of full marketization,an increase in the equilibrium interest rate level is likely to reduce the sensitivity of economic behavior to changes in interest rates.This will not change the effectiveness of macro Transmission of interest rates,but it will reduce the Transmission Mechanism of monetary policy.With regard to the micro-Transmission of interest rates,the reform of interest rate marketization has indeed strengthened the micro-Transmission Mechanism of monetary policy.However,if it enters a fully market-oriented state,the adverse selection risk in the market will rapidly magnify,causing the failure of the micro-Transmission of interest rates.