| A model was constructed to simulate emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2) from the electricity generation and transportation sectors in the US. The model was then used to develop 30-year projections of CO2 emissions from the two sectors in the US and from electricity generation in Ohio. The projections were evaluated to determine the ability of various CO 2 reduction strategies to achieve desired emission levels.; The study concluded that under "business as usual" (BaU) conditions, electricity generation and transportation in the US will add approximately 43 gigatons of carbon (C) to the atmosphere over the next 30 years.; In the case of electricity generation, the Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) adopted by 23 States will decrease emissions by only 5.5%, far short of a 52% reduction obtained by imposing a 1990-level cap on emissions. Applying the Energy Efficiency Standards proposed by the Ohio Consumers Council (OCC) to the entire US would achieve a reduction of approximately 39% from the BaU case, as would applying the California Standards nationally. Capping emissions at the 2000 level would result in a reduction of 38%. If CO 2 sequestration and/or control were the sole methods of reducing emissions, their combined control efficiency would need to reach 47% by the end of the 30-year period to maintain emissions at the 2005 levels.; Alternatively, the 30-year cumulative emissions achievable by capping emissions at the 1990, 2000 or 2005 levels can be attained by replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy and forcing renewables to reach 44%, 50%, and 64% of the fuel mix respectively by the end of the 30-year period.; For automobiles and light-duty trucks, capping emissions at the 2000 level would reduce the BaU, 30-year emissions by 50%. Applying the California rules at the national level would result in a 30% decrease. This would have substantially the same effect as capping emissions at the 2005 level.; In Ohio, the electricity generation BaU case would add 1,155 million tons of C (3.7% of US energy sector emissions) to the atmosphere over 30 years. Implementing the RPS proposed by the OCC would reduce that amount by 17%, to 954 million tons over 30 years. Capping emissions at the 2005 level could be accomplished by immediately reducing the coal percentage in the Ohio fuel mix from 89% to 83%.; Beyond the scenarios evaluated in this research, the model can serve as a flexible tool for determining whether a given strategy will achieve the desired goals. |
