Planification de la maintenance d'un parc de turbines-alternateurs par programmation mathematique

A growing number of Hydro-Quebec's hydro generators are at the end of their useful life and maintenance managers fear to face a number of overhauls exceeding what can be handled. Maintenance crews and budgets are limited and these withdrawals may take up to a full year and mobilize significant resources in addition to the loss of electricity production. In addition, increased export sales forecasts and severe production patterns are expected to speed up wear that can lead to halting many units at the same time.;The maintenance managers are able to provide a huge amount of data. Among them, is the hourly production of each unit for several years, the repairs history on each part of a unit as well as major withdrawals since the 1950's.;In this research, we tackle the problem of long term maintenance planning for a fleet of 90 hydro generators at Hydro-Quebec over a 50 years planning horizon period. We lay a scientific and rational framework to support withdrawals decisions by using part of the available data and maintenance history while fulfilling a set of technical and economic constraints.;We propose a planning approach based on a constrained optimization framework. We begin by decomposing and sorting hydro generator components to highlight the most influential parts. A failure rate model is developed to take into account the technical characteristics and unit utilization. Then, replacement and repair policies are evaluated for each of the components then strategies are derived for the whole unit. Traditional univariate policies such as the age replacement policy and the minimal repair policy are calculated. These policies are extended to build alternative bivariate maintenance policy as well as a repair strategy where the state of a component after a repair is rejuvenated by a constant coefficient.;Currently, expert judgment is at the heart of withdrawals which rely primarily on periodic inspections and in-situ measurements and the results are sent to the maintenance planning team who coordinate all the withdrawals decisions. The degradations phenomena taking place is random in nature and the prediction capability of wear using only inspections is limited to short-term at best. A long term planning of major overhauls is sought by managers for the sake of justifying and rationalizing budgets and resources.;These templates form the basis for the calculation of objective function for the scheduling problem. On one hand, this issue is treated as a nonlinear problem where the objective is to minimize the average total maintenance cost per unit of time on an infinite horizon for the fleet with technical and economic constraints. A formulation is also proposed in the case of a finite time horizon.;In the event of electricity production variation, and given that the usage profile is known, the influence of production scenarios is reflected on the unit's components through their failure rate. In this context, prognoses on possible resources problems are made by studying the characteristics of the generated plans.;On the second hand, the withdrawals are now subjected to two decision criteria. In addition to minimizing the average total maintenance cost per unit of time on an infinite time horizon, the best achievable reliability of remaining turbo generators is sought. This problem is treated as a biobjective nonlinear optimization problem.;Finally a series of problems describing multiple contexts are solved for planning renovations of 90 turbo generators units considering 3 major components in each unit and 2 types of maintenance policies for each component.