Design and Analysis of Tsunami Warning and Evacuation Systems

The massive and unprecedented destruction caused by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami opened up a whole new arena to explore natural disasters in the context of "disaster risk management". A proper early warning mechanism leading to successful evacuation prevents such catastrophes and thus emphasizes the necessity of a concrete framework for disaster preparedness planning for the Indian Ocean.;The research is particularly cognizant of probable scenarios for Sri Lanka, inclusive of nighttime and west coast tsunamis. Illustrative comparisons of such scenarios with the status quo, demonstrate the extra vulnerability of the current systems in place. Furthermore, the research individually models failures of the key stakeholders of the TWE process and quantifies the consequences with respect to delays in warning and evacuation.;The second stage of the study elucidates a decision analysis exercise performed to select an optimal tsunami detection mechanism for Sri Lanka out of two alternatives: a tide gauge and a buoy system. During the process, many scenarios that are traditionally not studied have been addressed and quantified. In particular, the probabilities of tsunami detection in the proposed systems and, the costs and probabilities of evacuations and false warnings are determined for the first time from the Sri Lankan perspective. The study concludes with the complete set of guidelines for each of the stakeholder institutions for streamlined functionality.;The very introduction of network modeling for disasters and the presented success story, with respect to tsunamis, will invariably lead to ramifications in other types of disaster modeling, including floods and tornadoes.;This research successfully models the tsunami warning and evacuation (TWE) activities from the genesis of an earthquake up to the completion of evacuation. A novel approach of network modeling with simulation is showcased, which provides stochastical results of the time consumption of each of the constituting activities and the whole TWE process. The Sri Lankan national warning and evacuation process exemplifies the selected methodology with data have been obtained through interviews and discussions with expert professionals. The simulation further assists in determining the adequacy of the existing TWE provisions at both international and national levels.