| The purpose of this study was to locate variables from 2006 and 2007 Georgia Criterion-Referenced Competency Test (CRCT) that could predict mathematics performance on the 2008 CRCT for a cohort of 449 students in two middle schools in Murray County in north Georgia. The student population was 80% Caucasian, 17% Hispanic, and 3% other. It was hypothesized that the predictors would be influenced by the high level of students eligible for free or reduced lunch. Logistic regression was applied to three data sets, all students, students from Bagley and Gladden Middle Schools. Sixth-grade CRCT mathematics percent correct was the only predictor common to all three groups. The northernmost middle school shared the other two predictors with all students, seventh-grade mathematics scaled score and seventh-grade science performance. The other middle school had only one more predictor, seventh-grade geometry percent correct. The probability of correctly identifying students' performances as either pass or fail ranged from 50% to 69%. The logit was used to test the model on the 2009 CRCT data, and it was deduced that the performance of students could be predicted correctly as much as 71.6% of the time. It was concluded that student performance could be predicted for the eighth-grade mathematics CRCT. Analyses should be continued to locate predictors for subsequent cohorts. |
