Examining operational errors in the National Airspace System using temporal marker framework

In air traffic control, an operational error is a loss of separation between two aircraft where the air traffic controller is at fault. Operational errors progress in a chain-like sequence of events. The evolution of an operational error can be studied using a progression system called temporal marker framework and can assist in identifying trends and lead to mitigation policies. Air traffic control error progression has not been previously studied with a large sample. This research used a quantitative correlational analysis of Temporal Marker Time Spans (TMTS), the time difference between the temporal marker categories occurring during an operational error, to determine any significant statistical association between the TMTS by workload as measured by the number of aircraft on the sector at the time of the error. Seventy-three errors were discarded because of audio and visual quality problems and two because they were not procedural errors. The final sample consisted of 334 en-route operational errors. Terminal Radar Approach Control operational errors were not available for download. Errors occurring in the control tower environment were not examined because the Temporal Marker Framework system was designed solely for operational errors in the radar environment. The research questions postulated whether the progression of the operation error, as measured by the TMTS, would be affected by controller workload as measured by the number of aircraft in the sector at the time of the error. None of the TMTS research questions resulted in a statistically significant correlation between any of the TMTS studied and the number of aircraft in the sector at the time of the error. The lack of statistical significance suggests that either other variables are potentially contributory or additional TMTS might need to be studied. Additionally, it was theorized that the progression could be dependent on past events based upon extrapolation from the present. It was further conjectured that the situation as it was unfolding and the reactions of the involved controller could affect the progression of the operational error. Future research should include a better sample of working SATORI re-creations, other variables and statistical methodologies, terminal OEs, and additional TMTS.