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Organic preference model in the United States: An ordered probit model application

Posted on:2011-07-03Degree:Ph.DType:Dissertation
University:University of FloridaCandidate:Zhou, YangFull Text:PDF
GTID:1449390002958178Subject:Economics
Abstract/Summary:
The organic food industry has been growing at a remarkable rate. In 2008, the retail sales for organic food products in the United States reached ;Household data were collected from an internet survey conducted by the private company from February 2008 through March 2010. The survey was nationally demographically balanced with a total of nearly 38,000 household entries. The essential response to the statement "I seek out organic foods" was scored by using a five-point Likert scale. Explanatory variables included in the models were established from demographic questions (including age, gender, ethnicity, income, education, employment, marital status, household size, region etc.), expenditures and grocery shopping locations, behavior/attitudes statements, health concerns and seasonality.;Since household responses to the statement "I seek out organic foods" were discrete values, ordered probit models were appropriate to estimate the probability of seeking out organic foods.;To illustrate how the probabilities of seeking out organic foods differs across sociodemographics, behaviors and attitudes, health concerns, etc., we simulated probabilities for five outcomes with each given a particular set of conditions for the explanatory variables by using the coefficients from the results of the ordered probit models.;By ranking the relative effects to the average likelihood in descending order, variables identified as contributing the major effect on the probability of seeking out organic foods include "numbers of daily servings of fruit", "eat fresh foods", "read label", "go out of way to obtain certain types of produce", and "age"; alternatively, "gender", "limited physical mobility concerns", "shopping for food in warehouse stores", "cholesterol concerns", and "obesity concerns" were the five least important factors. Overall, behavioral factors were more important than demographic characteristics, except age, on the probability of seeking out organic foods.;A limitation of the study is that the preference for organics was measured through self-reports of seeking out organics but not reporting the actual consumption level(s). However, an underlying premise is that seeking out organic foods and actual organic consumption are highly correlated.
Keywords/Search Tags:Organic, Ordered probit
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