| This dissertation discusses the political and economic forces, both external and domestic, that have shaped Brazilian trade policy in the 1990s and 2000s. Marked by concurrent multilateral and regional trade negotiations, the country has simultaneously embraced orthodoxy and liberalization of the past, while also falling back on protectionist practices. For instance, after implementing steep unilateral tariff cuts in the late 1980s and early 1990s, trade policy has subsequently undergone only piecemeal change in fact, "industrial subsidies" were maintained and even reinforced in the period 1988-2005. I analyze how the domestic institutional framework shaped Brazil's global strategy, swaying policymakers to opt for a regional integration initiative (Mercosur) and a rigid negotiating position in the multilateral sphere (World Trade Organization). At the same time, Brazil shirked its commitments with developed countries in the context of the Free Trade Area of the Americas and the European Union-Mercosur negotiations.The methodological approach taken here is an interdisciplinary one which draws on economics, international relations, and political science. I begin with a historical-comparative narrative concerning the choice of development models (eg. import-substitution industrialization), the nature of domestic economic institutions and bureaucracies, and the interaction of both with powerful interest groups as determinants of trade policy. Secondly, I explore the interaction between global forces, and Brazil's policy responses. I then conduct an econometric analysis using panel data which cover ten industrial sectors over seventeen years, my goal being to explain two trade policy variables -- tariffs and subsidized loans. By applying the assumptions of neoclassical trade theory (Heckscher-Ohlin and Ricardo-Viner), as well as those of the new growth theories to the Brazilian case, my results show that collective action and factor endowment variables explain patterns of trade protection/support in the country's trade policy over time. Finally, I discuss contemporary Brazilian trade policy decisions using descriptive data. |
