Application of a value-based model for quantifying container vulnerability at a marine terminal in the Port of New York and New Jersey

A container terminal is a large, interdependent and complex system. Terminals face two main mechanisms for acts of terrorism. First, the disruption to its functional operation caused by terrorist incidents such as blasts or armed attacks that can result in catastrophic consequences not only within the terminal but to the national supply chain. Second, a container, a key element in the supply chain delivery process, can be used to carry destructive weapons or terrorists into the port or hinterland. The need to develop more effective and efficient port security systems is highly important for the United States and other international maritime port stakeholders. The purpose of this dissertation is to present the application of a value-based model for prioritizing and identifying the most vulnerable container terminal locations and operational processes during container transfer from the ocean carrier's vessel at berth to the terminal gate. Both detection and response are modeled during several stages of the container transfer process. The model's results allow decision makers, performing allocation of limited financial resources, to protect their infrastructures, assets, and functional operations as well as to understand potential threats and reduce vulnerability from terrorism risks at their facilities.An analysis framework and value-based vulnerability model for container terminal operational processes are established. Weights are used to highlight important segments of the terminal operation process and vulnerability functional values are developed using "best-professional judgment" opinions in form of triangular distribution of security experts from industry and academia.A typical container terminal was utilized to demonstrate the technique: Howland Hook Marine Terminal, Port of New York and New Jersey. The results are presented as a case study in this dissertation. Expert opinions are used for validation and verification of the model when applied to two scenarios that depict the worst and the best case scenarios of likelihood of an incident, i.e., where risks are assumed to be high and low, respectively. From the sensitivity analysis results, the berth operation, and unloading the containers to yard truck are determined to be the most vulnerability location and process at the terminal. Twenty percent of operational activity processes dominate the vulnerability of the whole system. It is recommended that security systems and technologies be implemented at these activity processes to reduce terminal vulnerability.