AD infinitum: The use and impact of NAFTA trade remedy law in agriculture

The three essays in this dissertation investigate the use and effect of antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) laws against imports of agricultural products by the NAFTA countries. I discuss the history of AD and CVD laws in each of the NAFTA countries and present statistics relating to their use and final rulings on agricultural cases initiated between 1980 and 2005. The effect of AD and CVD cases on imports of agricultural products from named and non-named exporting countries is estimated using pooled regression analysis. Specifically, I estimate the duty and investigation effects on imports from countries named in the dispute, and the incidence of trade diversion from non-named countries.; The first essay focuses on the use of trade remedy law by the United States against imports of agricultural products. The results show a significant negative effect of AD and CV duties on imports from named countries. The incidence of trade diversion is small and only occurs in the year the case is initiated. This is partly explained by the limited flexibility of agricultural producers in non-named countries to increase output and exports to the complainant country because of issues such as seasonality and the perishability of many agricultural products.; The second essay focuses on the use of AD and CVD laws and the incidence of trade diversion as they apply to agricultural imports by Canada and Mexico, two countries highly dependent on agricultural trade, particularly with the United States. The results for Canada and Mexico are identical to those from the previous essay, with a strong duty effect but no incidence of trade diversion.; The third essay examines the impact of AD cases on agricultural exports from China. Unlike the first two essays, this essay presents five case studies concerning horticultural AD cases levied against China, principally by the United States. An examination of the market dynamics prior to, and following, the AD investigations indicates that AD orders sharply disrupt agricultural exports from China but only temporarily. Administrative and new-shipper reviews significantly lower AD duty rates applied against large shippers, allowing imports to rebound within three to four years.