| This dissertation examines the rise, present use, and future growth of the electric two-wheeler (E2W, a.k.a. E2W or e-scooter) in China, the world's most successful electric-drive vehicle. The E2W market has been experiencing tremendous growth with over 30 million now in regular use on Chinese streets. The adoption of E2W technology is significant because, along with their air quality and energy (low-carbon) benefits compared to gasoline powered motorcycles, E2Ws are driving the development of improved and lower cost batteries and may lead to a shift toward larger three-and four-wheel electric vehicles (EV).; This dissertation explores three questions: why the E2W market grew so rapidly in China, what factors are driving and resisting its growth, and how future growth might impact the adoption of electric vehicles. In Chapter 1, the context for this analysis is built by describing China's transportation past, present, and future challenges. E2Ws are also introduced and compared with gasoline-powered motorcycles on several metrics, such as performance, air emissions, and energy use. In Chapter 2, data from the literature was collected and analyzed to understand the history and important reasons for E2W growth in China. To supplement these data, the author and colleagues interviewed leaders of E2W and battery companies and toured several manufacturing plants. In Chapter 3, E2W and bicycles users were surveyed to understand how and why they use (or don't use) E2Ws. In Chapter 4, valve-regulated lead-acid (VRLA) batteries commonly used in today's E2Ws were laboratory tested to determine their performance characteristics. Data were also compiled on their cost, and on the cost and performance of Li-ion batteries. In Chapter 5, the future of E2Ws in China was assessed by integrating data from the previous three chapters and from the literature to create a force-field analysis of the E2W market. This chapter concludes by examining the spillover effects E2W market growth may have on the development of a market for larger electric vehicles. Chapter 6 provides recommendations for policy makers on E2Ws and suggestions of future areas of research on this topic. |
