External monitoring and the 'numbers game': Managers' decisions on earnings management and earnings guidance

This paper examines the impact of external monitoring by financial analysts and institutional investors on managers' decisions regarding using upward earnings management and downward earnings guidance to meet or beat analysts' forecasts. I find that firms followed by more unaffiliated financial analysts are less likely to manage earnings upwards but more likely to guide analysts' forecasts downwards. I also find firms held to a greater extent by transient institutional investors are more likely to manage earnings upwards and less likely to guide analysts' forecasts downwards, while firms held to a greater extent by dedicated institutional investors are less likely to engage in upward earnings management. The results indicate that managers' trade-offs between upward earnings management and downward earnings guidance to meet or beat analysts' forecasts vary with external monitoring and with the characteristics of the parties that serve as external monitors.