Integrated network flow model for a reliability assessment of the national electric energy system

Electric energy availability and price depend not only on the electric generation and transmission facilities, but also on the infrastructure associated to the production, transportation, and storage of coal and natural gas. As the U.S. energy system has grown more complex and interdependent, failure or degradation on the performance of one or more of its components may possibly result in more severe consequences in the overall system performance. The effects of a contingency in one or more facilities may propagate and affect the operation, in terms of availability and energy price, of other facilities in the energy grid. In this dissertation, a novel approach for analyzing the different energy subsystems in an integrated analytical framework is presented, by using a simplified representation of the energy infrastructure structured as an integrated, generalized, multi-period network flow model. The model is capable of simulating the energy system operation in terms of bulk energy movements between the different facilities and prices at different locations under different scenarios. Assessment of reliability and congestion in the grid is performed through the introduction and development of nodal price-based metrics, which prove to be especially valuable for the assessment of conditions related to changes in the capacity of one or more of the facilities. Nodal price-based metrics are developed with the specific objectives of evaluating the impact of disruptions and of assessing capacity expansion projects. These metrics are supported by studying the relationship between nodal prices and congestion using duality theory. Techniques aimed at identifying system vulnerabilities and conditions that may significantly impact availability and price of electrical energy are also developed. The techniques introduced and developed through this work are tested using 2005 data, and special effort is devoted to the modeling and study of the effects of hurricanes Katrina and Rita in the energy system. In summary, this research is a step forward in the direction of an integrated analysis of the electric subsystem and the fossil fuel production and transportation networks, by presenting a set of tools for a more comprehensive assessment of congestion, reliability, and the effects of disruptions in the U.S. energy grid.