| Downward spirals are common in fisheries, as stocks decline and fishers become hard-pressed to profit from shrinking harvests. Thus, the fortunes of fishes and fishers have always been linked, but when fleets from many nations compete over the same stock, some countries win while others lose out. Under open access, the benefits of exploitation are distributed according to the comparative advantages of domestic fleets, but under multilateral regulation, distribution is determined by negotiations. Conflicts over allocation and similar impediments to international collective action may be overcome if powerful states believe they will benefit more from cooperation than from competition.; Using this logic, several hypotheses are proposed, linking the economic vulnerability of domestic fleets to changes in national agendas as stocks decline and competition escalates. Six in-depth case studies from the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas were compiled to test this vulnerability response model. States generally behaved as predicted based on their domestic fleets' operational costs and the opportunity costs of alternative sources of revenue. The sole exception was the US role in protecting marlins, which are only by-catch in their commercial fisheries. Modification to include domestic susceptibility to noncommercial interests is indicated.; Secondary expectations were also developed to investigate the impact of vulnerability response on management outcomes. A clear pattern was observed, including the increasing use of transfers from more to less vulnerable states to ensure cooperation as commercially valuable stocks declined. A major implication of the behavioral model---that management at MSY should not be expected but that innovations may occur to rebuild depleted stocks---was also substantiated.; While more timely and effective management might be desirable, the fact that states are able to overcome their differences in order to deal with dire economic and biological situations remains a positive step toward sustainability. In such circumstances even severe depletion can be seen as opportunity as well as calamity. New institutions may arise and learning may take place as states collectively come to terms with the limited nature of international fisheries resources. Nevertheless, the future of these fishes and the fishers who target them is precarious. |
