Predicting Third Grade Reading Success from Kindergarten Phonological Awareness

Although phonological awareness (PA) is an essential preliteracy skill with well-established predictive validity for elementary school reading success, previous research indicates that PA intervention does not demonstrate long term effects on reading. The theory of automaticity was the underlying foundation used to understand the importance of mastering beginning reading skills to ensure efficient use of working memory. This mastery allows the excess capacity of working memory to be available for higher level reading skills. The purpose of this non-experimental, correlational study was to examine the literature gap regarding the predictive validity of 2 kindergarten predictor variables for 3rd grade reading success: PA acquisition rates and kindergarten phoneme segmentation accuracy. Archival data were collected from a 2009 kindergarten class in a rural, high poverty elementary school in South Carolina. Linear regression was used to determine the predictive validity of PA acquisition rates and accuracy of responses on the criterion variable of 3rd grade oral reading fluency. The results of this study indicated that only PA acquisition rates significantly predicted 3rd grade oral reading fluency. Kindergarten phoneme segmentation accuracy rate was not a significant predictor of 3rd grade oral reading fluency. The results from this study contribute to positive social change by identifying a significant predictor variable for educators to consider when implementing a more refined, meaningful early intervention strategy for enhancing future reading success of children known to be at high risk for reading difficulties.