Predicting Recidivism of the Convicted Sexual Offender Using the Polygraph and the Static-99

Childhood sexual abuse is an ongoing problem in the United States where it has been estimated that there are more than 11 million adult survivors of this crime. Polygraph testing of convicted sex offenders has spread throughout the United States in an effort to reduce recidivism, as has a 10-item objective measure known as the Static-99. The Static-99 significantly predicts the likelihood of recidivism. Many of these factors are collected in the sexual history polygraph examination (SHPE) for similar purposes. Grounded in social learning theory, the purpose of this study was to assess the degree to which information from the SHPE (male victims, stranger victims, unrelated victims, paraphilia history, early onset of offending, childhood victimization, and passing or failing the SHPE) improves the capacity of the Static-99 to predict sex offender recidivism. An archival sample of 93 convicted sex offenders was utilized. Logistic regression was used to compare the variance in recidivism accounted for by 4 models that included SHPE information and the Static-99 alone. Although the Static-99 did account for a significant portion of recidivism variance, none of the models accounted for significant portions of additional criterion variance. These findings indicated that the return on the investment of the resources required for polygraph testing of sex offenders needs to be re-evaluated. The study's outcome can contribute to positive social change through fostering informed decisions on how to treat and supervise the convicted sexual offender that may ultimately reduce sexual assault recidivism and the overall incidence of this type of crime.