The economic and political impacts of U.S. federal carbon emissions trading policy across households, sectors and states

This dissertation examines the economic and political impacts of climate policy across U.S. households, sectors and states. This dissertation is motivated by three themes that dominate climate policy: change, inequality, and uncertainty. The impacts of future climate changes are uncertain. Precautionary government intervention can be justified given the potentially catastrophic outcomes of climate change, especially for the most vulnerable communities. However, there is concern that climate policy changes would substantially burden the economy, and inequitably impact the poorest households and regions by reducing income and purchasing power, and by creating more difficult transitions to new green jobs. This dissertation analyzes the economic impacts of a U.S. federal ETP, a market-based approach used by governments worldwide to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Computable general equilibrium modeling is used to estimate the distributional economic impacts across U.S. household income groups and states. ETP can be designed to alleviate regulatory burdens on specific sectors, states, or income brackets; this dissertation compares the economic impacts of numerous policy design options. Uncertainty over climate change has also contributed to an increasingly contentious political debate over policy. This dissertation examines the influence of state-level computable general equilibrium results, as well as other state-level economic indicators, on Congressional climate policy voting.