Modeling urban growth in California's Central Valley: A neoclassic economic approach

Population growth and improved transportation systems caused rapid urban expansion in California's Central Valley in the past century. California's population growth is expected to continue in future decades. Urban expansion causes concerns from several interest groups with different perspectives, including municipalities, counties, land use planning agencies, farmland protection organizations, land developers, and environmental preservation activists. Census population, housing cost, and employment data were collected at census block group and tract levels. Alonso's household general equilibrium theory is employed to explain the population density and housing cost density patterns and their evolution over time. Multivariable and Lowry models are applied to simulate the patterns of urban growth. The relationship between agricultural land value and urban fringe population density is found. The Neoclassic economic explanation for urban growth in the study area is largely confirmed. A forecast for the Central Valley area's urban expansion is constructed by manipulating land use data from US Geological Survey, California Department of Water Resources, and Farmland Monitoring and Management Program. Neoclassic economic principles are employed to probe a way of efficient urban growth through case study of the major urbanized areas in the Central Valley.