| This dissertation is an analysis of government revenue emphasizing two aspects, oil revenue management and treasury bonds sales. The Mexican fiscal authority uses oil revenue as an imperfect substitute for debt via its ability to modify the magnitude of such resources by cutting investment expenses. This behavior will produce a negative correlation between oil revenue and non-oil revenue. Impulse responses of investment in the public oil company to non-oil revenue and price shocks are estimated using a VAR analysis. Investment in the oil sector is found to be quite sensitive to non oil revenue shocks. Further, the behavior observed in the data is described with an infinite horizon dynamic model in which the government faces oil price and tax collection uncertainty and it has to choose the amount of investment, government expenditure and savings levels each period, given a "desired" exogenous level of public expenditure. The solution of the model implies that the stock of capital is increased in greater magnitude when positive tax collection shocks are observed, which suggests that the investment solution will not depend on the long run path of oil prices. The model is calibrated and it mimics the qualitative properties of the data.; Bond sales are discussed with a structural analysis of the Mexican Treasury securities primary auctions suggests that a uniform format will feature revenue superiority under higher market uncertainty, defined as an environment with noisier signal values. This revenue superiority is associated to the winner's curse under discriminatory formats. The analysis is carried out by applying an structural econometric model proposed by Fevrier, Preget, and Visser (2002), using data from the primary auctions of the Certificados de la Tesoreria de la Federacion (CETES) during the period between January 2001 and April 2002. The model estimates the parameters that characterize the distribution function of the securities' marginal value. These estimated parameters are used to derive optimal bids and equilibrium prices of alternative auction mechanisms and compare revenues yielded through each one. The uniform format would yield an increase in revenues from bond sales of almost 0.22 percent of Mexico's GDP. |
