| A coupled ocean-atmosphere initialization scheme using Newtonian relaxation has been developed for the Florida State University coupled ocean-atmosphere global general circulation model. The coupled model is used for seasonal predictions of the boreal summers of 1987 and 1988. The atmosphere model is a modified version of the Florida State University global spectral model, resolution triangular truncation 42 waves. The ocean general circulation model consists of a slightly modified version developed by Latif (1987). Coupling is synchronous with exchange of information every two model hours.; Using daily analysis from ECMWF and observed monthly mean SSTs from NCEP, two - one year, time dependent, Newtonian relaxation were conducted using the coupled model prior to the seasonal forecasts. Relaxation was selectively applied to the atmospheric vorticity, divergence, temperature, and dew point depression equations, and to the ocean's surface temperature equation. The ocean's initial conditions are from a six year ocean-only simulation which used observed wind stresses and a relaxation towards observed SSTs for forcings. Coupled initialization was conducted from 1 June 1986 to 1 June 1987 for the 1987 boreal forecast and from 1 June 1987 to 1 June 1988 for the 1988 boreal forecast. Examination of annual means of net heat flux, freshwater flux and wind stress obtained by from the initialization show close agreement with Oberhuber (1988) climatology and the Florida State University pseudo wind stress analysis.; Sensitivity of the initialization/assimilation scheme was tested by conducting two - ten member ensemble integrations. Each member was integrated for 90 days (June-August) of the respective year. Initial conditions for the ensembles consisted of the same ocean state as used by the initialize forecasts, while the atmospheric initial conditions were from ECMWF analysis centered on 1 June of the respective year. Root mean square error and anomaly correlations between observed and forecasted SSTs in the Nino 3 and Nino 4 regions show greater skill between the initialized forecasts than the ensemble forecasts. It is hypothesized that differences in the specific humidity within the planetary boundary layer are responsible for the large SST errors noted with the ensembles. |
