An ecological analysis of demographic and socioeconomic contextual factors associated with church growth among selected Christian denominations in the United States, 1980 and 1990

Previous research on church growth has found different patterns and levels of growth among denominations in the U.S. Utilizing data from the 1980 and 1990 U.S. censuses, and membership data for various church groups in 1980 and 1990 from the Glenmary Research Center, the current research investigated demographic and socioeconomic contextual factors associated with relative church growth in the U.S. for six denominational families and three church groups across all counties in the U.S. Cross-sectional and change analyses were conducted for the time period of 1980 to 1990.; Findings from the analyses suggest that denominational dominance in 1980 had the largest influence on relative church growth for the 1980–1990 period. Population change was significantly related to relative church growth for the 1980–1990 period only for two denominational families and one church group. Additionally, the expected and hypothesized relationships of the independent variables, based on findings of research conducted by studying characteristics of individuals, were found not to be accurate for the contextual-level analyses.; When counties with the largest increases and largest decreases in denominational dominance between 1980 and 1990 were identified for the church groups, the counties tended to be nonmetropolitan counties. These counties also tended to be economically farming-dependent counties and commuting policy type counties. Some switching of members from the Methodists to the Baptists was also suggested.; The human ecological framework is found to be a viable theoretical framework for future research that should include both institutional and contextual independent variables. Additional implications are that future research should include denominational dominance at the beginning of the time period of interest as an independent variable, that direct measures of ethnic membership should be included when possible, that analyses should be conducted by church groups rather than by denominational families, that future analyses should include categories of region as in independent variable, and that possible switching of membership among church groups and the effects of migration should be investigated.