Breaks in the storm: Recognizing ripe conditions for mediation between disputing states

This study examines the contextual conditions associated with both the initiation and success of international mediation efforts between disputing states. Most research on mediation success has tended to focus upon short-term outcomes such as the establishment of a mediation agreement or a cease-fire. Little attention, however, has been devoted to the contextual factors that promote broader improvement in the relations between states beyond the simple achievement of an agreement. Because mediation agreements do not necessarily translate into significant improvement in the relationship between disputants, this lack of attention to the broader effect of mediation represents a significant shortcoming within the mediation literature.; The theoretical model developed in this study distinguishes between the contextual factors associated with mediation success across two distinct dimensions. First, the model distinguishes between the contextual factors associated with mediation agreements and those associated with an actual reduction in conflict between states. Second, the model distinguishes between the contextual factors favorable for mediation success based upon the stage of the conflict between the disputants. By focusing upon both the initiation and success of mediation, the study permits a comparison of the factors that stimulate mediation efforts to those that promote their success. The results of this study permit the reconciliation of some of the divergent theoretical expectations within the mediation ripeness literature as well as the development of a better understanding of when international mediation is most likely to be successful.