| Methods for generation reliability calculations fall into two broad categories. In the first category are the recursive methods based on unit addition algorithms whereas in the second category are techniques which use the first few terms of some infinite expansion. These later techniques generally focus on the LOLE calculations.; This dissertation proposes a new approach for calculating loss of load expectation (LOLE) and loss of load frequency (LOLF) indices. The approach is based on the method of stages for modeling non-exponential distributions. Expressions are given for the LOLE as well as LOLF. Relationships are derived for determining the parameters of these distributions from the generating unit data of capacity, failure and repair rates.; Several studies using the IEEE-RTS and EPRI System E are reported to test the accuracy of the proposed technique under conditions of low forced outage rates and different values of percent reserve. Other studies for the production costing, multi-area system reliability and the PLF analysis are also reported in this dissertation. The method gives results close to the recursive method and is very efficient. |
