THE CHANGING ROLE OF THE UNITED STATES IN THE FLUCTUATING WORLD WHEAT TRADE, 1960-75

The United States was the world's leading wheat exporter during 1960-75. Its share of the wheat sold internationally averaged 40 percent throughout the period, and it increased steeply in the early 1970's.; Factors behind the American ability to meet its own wheat needs and have large surpluses for export included the world's third largest wheat acreage, high output efficiency, large privately-owned farms operated on a commercial grain growing basis, high degree of mechanization, and heavy inputs of chemical fertilizer and agricultural chemicals.; The U.S.S.R., India and Japan were the major importers of American wheat. Each nation had a differing complex of physical and societal factors that explained its dependence upon imports and the United States as the source of supply.; The weather factor figured prominently in the amount of wheat available in the United States for export and in the amounts needed by most wheat-importing nations. The United States enjoyed relatively favorable weather conditions during 1960-75, whereas the U.S.S.R. suffered from drought conditions of varying severity. With its distinctive monsoon-type climate, India also had a few bad drought years when wheat production dropped and imports soared.; Governmental actions in the form of national policies and international agreements were a critical factor in the size and destination of American wheat exports during 1960-75. American wheat production and export policy underwent a gradual but pronounced shift from coping with enormous wheat surpluses through P.L. 480 programs and foreign economic assistance to commercial sales. The U.S.S.R. was compelled by domestic grain shortages to become increasingly dependent upon American wheat supplies. Conversely, India shifted from a policy of dependence on purchase of American wheat to a policy stressing self-sufficiency and smaller imports. Japanese wheat imports grew in volume with greater domestic demand for flour products.; The two major factors of weather conditions and national wheat policies are subject to rapid and radical change, the former by natural forces and the latter by political and economic forces. They provide much of the explanation for the changing geographical patterns of the world wheat trade and the American role in international wheat movements during 1960-75.