| The study addresses two hypotheses, that changes in the oil trade, as well as its safety rules and related institutions have resulted in a reduction in the incidence and the amount of oil spilled in the marine environment and likewise have resulted in a decrease in damage caused by oil spills. Indications are that there are no substantial change in incidence, but a 200 percent rise in quantity from 1971 to 1985 followed by a slight decrease to 1990. Using two damage assessment methodologies and archival data, damage appears to be also increasing. These Damage Assessment models represent the present state in the field of NRDA, and are our only chance to glimpse the trend of natural resource damage over the last decade.;Despite the apparent 50 percent decrease in relative damage described by the Type "A" procedure, the Modified Alaskan model showed an increase of over 200 percent. Both models possess inherent defects, but more sensitive models might very well show an even greater increase in damage. |
