| Regression and recursive path analyses were used to develop models of stumpage bidding practices for non-industrial private forest stumpage offered by forestry consultants. Models will serve as a basis for developing extension programs.;Regression models for high bid, bid range, average bid, and overbid were regressed on physical descriptions of stumpage and measures of market demand. Best predictions for high and average bid (R;Recursive models for individual bids and overbid were developed to evaluate total, direct, and indirect effects of antecedent blocks of variables. The latent variable blocks were producer requirements (exogenous), physical stumpage descriptions, competition, and bidder experience. Models for logging and sawmill sectors were dominated by total effect of sawlog volume, and much of this effect was direct. Loggers were more sensitive to their production needs, price index, and other potential bidders. Overbidding was related to measures of immediate need.;Indications are that extension programming should focus on increasing bidder skills in volume estimation and recovery. Also, basic research on estimating and evaluating individual production demands and inventory requirements may be useful. Information on market prices and demand for specific species may reduce overbidding. |
