AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF INTERSTATE LABOR FORCE MIGRATION

The purpose of this study is to analyze and forecast migration decisions of labor force members. Location choice is viewed within a theoretical framework which assumes that the individual is a utility maximizer. Location bundles which include some goods available at all locations and other goods which are location-specific can be varied by moving. Each person reaches his (or her) optimum by first considering the opportunities which are available at all potential locations. Differences in individual characteristics and circumstances are hypothesized to cause people to evaluate these opportunities in alternative ways.;Although differences in migration determinants between states are discovered, there are some general findings. The typical migrants in the sample tend to be older and earn higher income than do nonmigrants. Family relationships also appear to be important influences on the migration decisions. Migrants are also less likely to be married than nonmigrants. Contrary to expectations, families with two income earners appear to move just as often as families where only one person is employed. Destination choice is shown to be determined by income opportunity and climate. Evidence that improved climate can sometimes only be obtained at the cost of reduced income is discovered.;Overall, the migrant appears to be older, richer, and more willing to take a cut in income for better climate than the nonmigrant. One possible interpretation of the results is that many interstate moves are being made in anticipation of retirement. Those who have earned greater lifetime income are most able to absorb the decline in earnings consequent upon moving prior to retirement. Economic theory postulates that higher income people will demand greater quantities of leisure activities. This increase can be obtained through the migration process. Locations with warm weather have historically offered greater leisure possibilities than places with colder, more variant climate.;The results are utilized to obtain interstate migration forecasts. Rising family incomes, the process of population aging, and an assumption of the continued importance of climate-related amenities in the migration decision lead to a forecast of further migration concentrated toward Sunbelt destinations. Policies aimed at restricting this growth or attracting migrants to other locations could alter this pattern.;A two-step methodology is adopted for the empirical section of this study. First, the "whether to move" decision is modeled for all sample members. Then, the choice of "where to move" is analyzed for the proportion of the sample who migrated. The first decision is considered for four separate states. States were chosen based upon historical rates of out-migration, particularly to Florida. The second model focuses upon the destination choice of those who actually moved from these states. Eight alternative states are considered as destinations.