Research On The Heterogeneity And Effect Of Bilateral Investment Treaties In Asia Based On Index Evaluation

Asia is the starting point and core region of"One Belt One Road",therefore,the smooth development of economic cooperation between China and other Asian countries as well as the promotion of Asian regional economic integration to a great extent are the foundation for succeeding in the construction of"One Belt One Road".Bilateral investment treaties(BITs)are the most important factors affecting international direct investment,while international direct investment is one of the most important means to promote regional economic integration.As a consequence,the study of the effects on the Asia-wide international investment treaties is significant to drive direct investments among Asian countries,so as to deepen regional economic integration and promote the construction of"One Belt One Road".On the basis of literature review,the thesis first describes the worldwide evolution and trend of BITs in detail from three points of view:the origin and development of BITs,the major development stages and characteristics of BITs,and the trend of BITs.Then,according to the specific situations of Asian countries and their own characteristics,the thesis conducts a typical and sufficient analysis in the evolution and development of BITs from four parts:the history of BITs signed among Asian countries,the motivation and impetus of BITs signed among Asian countries,the comparison of BITs signed among Asian countries,and the changes in specific articles of BITs signed among Asian countries.Next,the thesis proposes a method of constructing a composite index to score BITs by dividing the contents of BIT into 13specific provisions,which is applied to 432(283 valid)BITs in Asia region and 481(261 valid)BITs in Europe region.The results of the above evaluation and comparison analysis form the core variables and data sources of empirical research.At the same time,the thesis employs the scores of BITs in Asia and Europe region together with a variety of statistical analytical methods,such as cluster analysis,discriminantanalysis and item response theory,to perform quantitative comparisons among BITs in Asia and Europe region,leading to clarifying the heterogeneity of BITs signed among Asia and Europe countries respectively.Following the above research,the thesis further constructs an econometric model coming from the hypothesis that BIT has a non-linear relationship with FDI(foreign direct investment),which is applied to two groups of samples in Asia and Europe region respectively as well as the country samples within the two regions.The results of empirical model reveal a stable and non-linear effect of BIT on FDI,that is,with the improvement of BIT standard,the effect of BIT on FDI increases along with decreasing in the marginal effect,and turns negative once the critical point is exceeded.Accordingly,the non-linear relationship between BIT and FDI reflects an inverted U-shaped curve in the graph.The index of 13 main terms of BIT is separately put into the model,and the results show that the regression results(including the sign and significance of the coefficient)of 8 terms,such as investment promotion and asset transfer,are consistent with the one of the total index of BIT,indicating that these terms have a significant contribution to the effect of BIT.The absolute values of the coefficients of the variable BIT and BIT~2 in Asian samples are obviously smaller than those in European samples,indicating that the improvement of BIT standards in Asia has less effect on FDI than that in Europe.Further calculations show that the threshold of Asian samples is low while that of European samples is high,and combined with the conclusion in BIT evaluations that Asian BIT standards are higher than European BIT standards,a paradox is produce that"higher BIT standards possess lower effects whereas lower standard BIT possess higher effects".The thesis also explains this paradox in the perspective of the differences in the background of signing BIT and the domestic institution environment.Finally,taking together all of the above conclusions,the thesis offers a couple of proposals to advance the construction of BITs and promote the effects of BITs in Asia region from point of driving the flow of international direct investment within Asia region,deepening Asia regional economic integration and propelling the construction of"One Belt One Road".