| A large number of typical complex systems,either directly or indirectly,are related to people.Group behavior is not simply adds up by individuals,but with more determining factors,it is even truer in agricultural activities.With rapid development of modern e-commerce and logistics,participants(including farmers,acquirers,wholesalers,retailers and various service providers).Traditional supply process has gradually developed into even complicated and diversified relationships with deepened globalization of economy and trade.The network structure and interaction relationship will be further complicated the behavioral dependency coupling between the participating subjects becomes even close,and characteristics of co-existence and mutual benefit coexist will be more and more obvious at the same time.However,complexed relationship cannot effectively solve selling problems,production costs are high,but prices are high farmer’s profit is small,participants in each step also suffered a lot.Besides,risk factors in the production and operation process of agricultural products also form a complex trigger relationship;certain risk can cause secondary,derivative,or several other risk events to occur successively.Hence,separate inspection on a single link,single risk,even a simple understanding of their own enterprises are not enough at all,the interaction between participants will inevitably bring risk,once the risk event occurs,a "domino" will largely be triggered and consequently even a shock to the whole system will occur.In this paper,we focus our attention on the complex interaction between the participants in the agricultural supply chain,taking complex network theory as a research tool;we carried out a systematic macro-research from system engineering perspective.From the internal logic,we arrange the paper in"feature analysis and model construction" mode.(1)We systematically summarized the structural characteristics of agriculture supply system from complex network perspective.In order to analyze "hard selling dilemma",we explored the historical Outline of supply relations and it development history.At the same time,we studied the characteristics of purchase behavior and illustrated its "strong periodicity and weak memorability" feature.(2)Explored short-term purchase interaction mechanisms in agriculture exchange activities through complex network simulation.Firstly analyzed individual independent decisionmaking mechanism,we Pay more attention to the influence of adjacent individual on decisionmaking mechanism in the process of interaction,and simulate the influence in-group behavior.Second,we studied the nonlinear interaction between individuals within each given interaction time range.The overall effect,that is,the change of individual activity strategy eventually triggers group behavior.(3)We constructed a complex network model based on the dual multi-local world theory.Compared to other similar studies,some exploration and innovation have been carried out as:first,we taking into account the interactions between participants in the supply chain,we assumes that although nodes are in different local area worlds,but different categories of nodes can trading and establishing links in both cross-layer and cross-world way.Secondly,we established asynchronous-continuity process,which closely related to the actual transaction process.Different types of trading edges will last for a certain amount of time.With the model on the actual trade over.Preliminary results of the paper show that the smoothness of the supply of agricultural products is highly dependent on the stability of production;local world’s size needs to be highly matched;the heterogeneity of nodes in the network will not be rapidly be expanded,node accumulation Advantages cannot be accumulated persistently.The unstable state of the bordering relationship of the agricultural product supply network makes it highly vulnerable,the match between the local world and the unique perishability of the product itself,and other factors,are all causes of the "selling dilemma" of Agri-related products.(4)Based on the preliminary results and the model we constructed,we explored network module(NM)and discussed the monitoring and early warning strategy from the basic building blocks perspective. |
