Theoretical Model And Policy Study Of Exhaustible Resources Inter-temporal Allocation In China Under Uncertain Environment

Exhaustible energy will be an important material basis for life and production in China in the future.It is full of uncertainty in the process of inter-temporal allocation.It is an important task for researchers of energy economy to make predictive analysis of the possible impacts of various uncertain environmental factors and to provide policy makers with beneficial suggestions.From the perspective of macro-decision and micro-decision,and by using NPEST(nature,policy,economy,culture and technology)analysis method,various uncertain factors influencing the inter-temporal allocation of exhaustible energy resources in China are analyzed.Secondly,from the perspective of macroscopic decision-making,the stochastic dynamic programming model was constructed for "uncertainty of two types of energy reserves",and the optimal inter-temporal allocation path of exhaustible energy and the optimal opportunity of exhaustible energy to alternative energy were discussed by using theoretical model solution and numerical simulation analysis.A stochastic dynamic programming model is constructed based on the "uncertainty of multiple backstop technologies discovery",and by using theoretical model solution and scenario analysis,the influence of time and cost uncertainty of multiple backstop technologies discovery on optimal inter-temporal allocation of exhaustible energy and the adoption of backstop technologies is studied.Based on the uncertainty of the implementation of the "carbon emission ceiling constraint" policy,a general dynamic programming model is constructed,and the optimal inter-temporal allocation path of exhaustible energy and price path of energy are studied by using theoretical solution and scenario analysis.Based on the uncertainty of the policies of "third party pollution control","carbon tax" and "pollution control subsidy",a multi-sectoral endogenous economic growth model is constructed,and the influences of the three policies on the inter-temporal allocation path of exhaustible energy in China,environmental pollution and economic growth are discussed by using theoretical solution and numerical simulation.Finally,from the perspective of micro-decision,a stochastic dynamic programming model is constructed for "coal price uncertainty",and the influence of coal price uncertainty on the optimal decision making of coal enterprises in the life cycle is studied by using numerical simulation method.The specific research conclusions are as follows:(1)The more uncertain the availability of exhaustible energy,the sooner policymakers turn to alternative resources.The more uncertain the availability of alternative energy,the later policymakers turn to it.The earlier the conversion,the higher the rate of exhaustible energy extraction,otherwise the lower.In particular,policy makers may not immediately switch to alternative energy when conversion costs are close to zero.(2)Until the final backstop technology is discovered and there is no better backstop technology available in the future,during this period,the Hotelling rule no longer applies,and the uncertainty of the better backstop technology discovery accelerates the depleted energy recovery.The higher the conversion cost of the existing backup technology,the later it is adopted,and the probability of better backstop technology discovery magnifies this trend.And when there are better backstop technologies to expect,adoption time can(but not necessarily)be delayed regardless of whether the conversion cost of the existing backstop technologies is high or low(zero conversion costs are a special case).(3)Before,after and during the implementation of the "carbon ceiling constraint" policy,the rate of exhaustible energy exploitation decreases or remains constant,while the rate of alternative energy increases.When alternative energy is represented as "learn-by-doing",if it is first used during or before the ceiling constraint,there will be a two-peak energy price path,which is different from the Hotelling rule.(4)The policies of "third party pollution control" and "carbon tax" are conducive to pollution control and to postponing the exploitation of exhausted energy resources.However,subsidies for pollution control will lead to the "green paradox".In the short term,the increase of energy extraction will lead to the possible increase of environmental pollution.The impact of three policies on economic growth is uncertain.(5)The optimal decision of each stage of coal mine determined by the critical price(before the construction begins,1/3 of the construction is completed,2/3 of the construction is completed,100% of the construction is completed and the production starts,temporary storage,restart or abandoned)has significant difference.At the very low price index level,the coal mine starts construction.As the construction goes on,the critical price will rise and then fall to a lower level,causing the coal mine to stop production(seal up).Then at a higher price level,the coal mine starts production again.Comparative studies have found that the critical price index is higher in all stages of coal mining under the "low price policy" than under the "high price policy".Smaller mines have higher critical prices at all stages than larger mines.High volatility reduces the critical price at the beginning of both policies.Under the single price policy described by GBM,the critical price begins production at very high levels of coal mines and then declines at subsequent stages.Numerical simulations also show that a gradually increasing carbon tax is more beneficial to energy producers.The dissertation is inclusive of 49 figures,22 tables and 259 references.