The Theoretical And Econometrics Study On The Relationship And Effects Between Economic Growth And Financial Risks

As China's economy enters a period of structural transformation,traditional economic driving force can sustain economic growth,but they are no longer enough to maintain the past rapid growth trend.At the same time,the structural problems and financial risks that were previously concealed by the high economic growth rate are gradually emerging,and the contradictions and conflicts between the financial market and the real economy are also on the rise,which makes it easier for financial risks to spread to the real economy and form a vicious circle.Recently,the impact of the epidemic and the deteriorating external environment,in this context,a comprehensive analysis of the correlation between economic growth and financial risks is an inevitable demand to ensure high-quality economic development.Therefore,we need to systematically study the following important issues: what are the trends and characteristics of economic growth and financial risks in the new era? What is the correlation between economic growth and financial risk? What are the transmission channels through which the two interact?And in the face of this linkage mechanism,how should our government implement what kind of policy combination to maintain the stable operation of the economy? Because of this,based on the economic growth theory and the theory of financial risk,in-depth economic growth trend and periodic characteristics,reasonable measure financial risk,a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic relationship between the two under different historical background,and on this basis,simulation of different economic policy mix to achieve stable economic growth in the supportive and regulation,So as to further improve the economic growth theory and financial risk theory,and provide theoretical support and practical basis for our government to formulate and implement the combination mechanism of fiscal policy,monetary policy and macro-prudential policy.This paper is divided into four parts and seven chapters.The details are as follows:Chapter 1 and Chapter 2 are the first part of this paper,which mainly expounds,compares and improves the factual basis and theoretical basis of the study.Chapter 1 is the introduction of the thesis,which mainly introduces the research background,research significance and research framework of the thesis,so as to lay some necessary economic facts and empirical evidence for the subsequent research.Chapter 2 is literature review and research progress of carding and reviewed part,this part is mainly research on financial risk,the correlation between economic growth and financial risk mechanism research and the development process of macroeconomic policy coping mechanism research and comprehensively in this paper,the evolution process,in accordance with the academic history development in this field,in addition to introduce frontier progress and the main academic point of view,It also lays the necessary theoretical foundation and important economic proposition for the empirical research in the following chapters.Chapter 3 and Chapter 4 are the second part of this paper,which mainly focuses on the econometric and theoretical research of the correlation mechanism between economic growth and financial risk.The third chapter mainly measures the degree of financial risk in China and analyzes the correlation mechanism between economic growth and financial risk on this basis.This chapter firstly makes a systematic analysis of the long-term trend and cycle characteristics of China's economic growth by using year-on-year GDP growth rate as a proxy variable,and then respectively explores the correlation between real economy,financial market and macro policies and economic growth.Secondly,the financial stress index is constructed by using the data indexes of the banking sector,the stock market,the bond market and the foreign exchange market to describe the dynamic characteristics of financial risks as the proxy variable of financial risks.Finally,this chapter studies the dynamic correlation mechanism between economic growth and financial risk based on "time-varying parameter-vector autoregression model"(TVP-VAR model).The research results show that China's economic growth has undergone significant structural changes,especially since the new normal,the long-term trend of China's economic growth has shifted from high-speed gear to medium-high-speed range,and with the change of macroeconomic regulation mode,the fluctuation range of economic cycle has decreased to a certain extent.Reflect a kind of "inertia" in the process of fluctuation of economic growth or the "anti-slump" of economic growth.From the perspective of the correlation mechanism between growth and risk,the increase of financial risks will be transmitted to the real economy through the financial market and restrain economic growth,while economic expansion will promote the formation of asset bubbles and thus increase financial risks.Since 2011,the correlation between growth and risk has gradually weakened,and there has been a structural shift in the correlation between growth and risk.After analyzing the correlation mechanism between economic growth and financial risk by econometric means,we still need to deeply analyze the theoretical basis of correlation mechanism.Therefore,chapter 4 of this paper mainly analyzes the effect and transmission path between economic growth and financial risk by constructing a theoretical model.Based on "typical facts" in China's economic operation,this chapter constructs a DSGE model with financial risk impact,and makes it conform to China's economic reality through parameter calibration.Then,numerical simulation and counterfactual test are used to illustrate the transmission path between economic growth and financial risk.The research finds that financial risk impact mainly affects economic growth through cost channel.When financial risk increases,output decreases,and price level increases,financial vulnerability also increases.In the process of transmission,financial supply and demand friction is an important factor affecting the transmission effect,and price addition is the decisive mechanism influencing the effect of financial risk cost driven impact.Chapter 5 and Chapter 6 are the third part of this thesis,focusing on how to balance the dual objectives of "stable growth" and "risk prevention" in macroeconomic policies.Chapter 5analyzes how macroeconomic policies maintain high sustainable economic growth and financial stability under the combined framework of fiscal policies and monetary policies.This chapter first predicts the possibility of China's monetary policy adjustment orientation shift based on the long-term and short-term indicators of monetary policy,and analyzes the "stable growth" and "stable price" effects of fiscal and monetary policy under the background of fiscal and monetary policy adjustment orientation shift based on the "MS-DSGE model".Furthermore,based on the SV-TVP-Favar model(stochastic volatility-time-varying parameter-factor vector autoregression model),the "risk prevention" effect of fiscal and monetary policy is analyzed.The results of estimation and test show that the effect of fiscal and monetary policy is more significant,the effect of monetary policy on inflation is better,and the effect of fiscal policy on economic growth is better.This kind of research distinguishes the combination effect of economic policy and individual effect;At the same time,the impact effect of monetary policy and fiscal policy on China's financial stability is quite different,and the "risk prevention" effect of monetary policy is gradually better than that of fiscal policy.However,under the condition of multiple indicators,there is no absolutely superior choice between monetary policy and fiscal policy in the regulation effect of financial stability,so it is more reasonable and necessary to evaluate the "risk prevention" effect of monetary policy with multiple indicators.Chapter 6 of this paper mainly analyzes the "bistability" policy objectives of macroeconomic policies under the "dual pillar" framework of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy.This chapter constructs a DSGE model with financial risks,and considers the multiple effects of real estate on consumption,investment and collateral in the financial market as a theoretical model to analyze the regulation effects of the "two-pillar policy".It is found that the traditional regular monetary policy based on the deviation of inflation rate can restrain economic fluctuations,but in the process of regulation,there will be problems such as uncontrollable strength,long-term lag effect on the real economy,and failure to take into account financial risks.After the inclusion of macro-prudential policies,the regulation effect of the "two-pillar policy" framework is more robust and can reduce systemic financial risks.In different policy combinations,inflation targeting and macro-prudential policy with strong feedback are the dominant combination,and the welfare loss caused by regulation is the least.The fourth part is the conclusion,which consists of Chapter 7.This chapter summarizes the research results of the above chapters,makes a unified summary and summary,and puts forward the main countermeasures and suggestions centering on the balance mechanism of stable growth and risk prevention.The main progress and innovation made in this paper are reflected in the following four aspects.First,this paper has made new progress in financial risk measurement and risk index compilation,and measured the "mean effect" and "volatility effect" of financial risk shocks,expanded the target dimension of macroeconomic analysis and added risk management tools.Based on some subclass financial market data,we construct the financial stress index,measure the degree of financial risk,obtain the dynamic index data of financial risk measurement,and realize the financial risk detection and prediction under the influence of various uncertainties.Then,we use TVP-VAR model to test the dynamic correlation mechanism between economic growth and financial risk,and provide the dynamic transmission mechanism between economic growth and financial risk from the perspective of growth rate impact and risk impact,which provides important empirical evidence for quantifying the correlation mechanism between economic growth and financial risk.It provides an important decision-making reference standard and basis for the dynamic balance between "steady growth" and "risk prevention".Second,under the conditions of financial friction and market failure,this paper obtains the micro mechanism and corresponding economic evidence that financial risks affect economic growth,and gives the regularity and time consistency conditions of economic policy combination.Based on typical empirical facts and real economic background,this paper constructs a DSGE model including economic and financial frictions such as price addition,financial supply-demand frictions,and the revised policy rules of "Sinification",so as to deeply analyze the micro transmission mechanism of financial risk impact on the real economy.Here by using the theory of financial accelerator research our country important theoretical model of relationship between economic growth and financial risks,establish the real output associated with financial friction micro proposition,proved that the nonlinear relation between economic growth and financial risk mechanism,and found that fiscal policy and monetary policy rules of the link between the economic growth and financial risk mechanism has an important influence,Then it proves that macroeconomic regulation and economic policy combination mechanism have important function and practical value in theory.Thirdly,this paper estimates and tests the cyclical dependence of economic policy effect by using the measurement and division of economic cycle zone system and economic policy zone system.This paper uses the MS-DSGE model to measure the regulatory effects of fiscal policies and monetary policies under different zone systems,which provides an important empirical basis for the cyclical interdependence of macroeconomic regulation and demonstrates the necessity and feasibility of counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical macroeconomic regulation.This method breaks the premise assumption of fixed parameters in the traditional DSGE model and extends the correlation of economic variables to different stages of the economic cycle,greatly expanding the applicability and relevance of DSGE model,so that it can describe and analyze the design principles and coping mechanisms of macroeconomic policies in different economic environments.Fourthly,this paper makes important progress in the research of economic policy operation mode to maintain the dynamic balance between "steady growth" and "risk prevention",and describes and tests the effect of "dual pillar policy" on steady growth and risk prevention.First,we note that economic growth and financial risks not only involve the real economy and the virtual economy,but also involve multiple policy objectives such as maintaining economic growth and maintaining price stability.Therefore,we discuss the combination mechanism of fiscal policy and monetary policy to achieve the dual objectives of stable growth and risk prevention,demonstrate the basic constraints and typical rules of the optimal combination mechanism of fiscal policy and monetary policy,and put forward some important views such as extending the period of active fiscal policy.Secondly,we study the macro-control tools for preventing risks,mainly introducing macro-prudential policy tools,demonstrating the effect of the "two-pillar framework" integrated with macro-prudential tools,and discussing the regulation mode,implementation measures and dynamic characteristics of the "two-pillar framework".