| Under the increasingly severe situation of energy and environment,the clean technology industry represented by electric vehicles(EVs)has become the focus of the medium-and longterm strategic layout of governments all over the world.How to promote the sustainable development of the industry with low-cost and high-efficiency solutions is a common concern of the government,enterprises and scholars.However,from the development experience of EV industry in China,it can be seen current mainstream fiscal incentive policies could not always effectively stimulate the internal momentum of industrial development.The use of environmental norms to intervene in the decisions of consumers and manufacturers and guide the transformation of collective preferences to clean products is a new path vigorously explored by environmental economists in recent years.Although some scholars have affirmed the potential of environmental norm interventions in changing consumer attitudes,the depth and breadth of existing research need to be improved.Taking China’s EV industry as an example,this paper explores the cultivation of clean technology industry from a new perspective of environmental norms.In the aspect of theoretical research,combined with the relevant theories of personal norms and social norms,this paper puts forward the theoretical mechanism that environmental norms affect consumer choice and manufacturer decision-making,and then constructs an industrial evolution model of the effect of environmental norms on consumer choice and manufacturer decision-making under the framework of agent-based model.In the aspect of empirical research,the influence of personal norms and social norms on the purchase intention of EVs is investigated using Likert scale and structural equation model.In order to eliminate the interference caused by potential consumer willingness behavior deviation,the effect of environmental norm intervention information is further tested by stated preference survey and discrete choice model.Finally,based on the industrial evolution model and Repast simulation platform,this paper simulates the evolution dynamics of China’s EV industry and the diffusion process of market demand under the condition of activating personal norms,and further compare the effects of two kinds of social normative intervention policies.The results of the questionnaire survey for potential vehicle purchasers show that,personal norms can significantly predict the willingness to purchase EVs,but the impact of social norms is not significant.In terms of personal normative intervention,activating awareness of responsibility and consequences can significantly increase consumers’ probability of buying EVs by 187.3%and 38.9%,respectively.In terms of descriptive normative intervention,for every 1%increase in the proportion of EV users in the community,the probability of consumers buying EVs will increase by 5%.As far as the prohibited normative intervention is concerned,its impact on the promotion of EVs varies with time.The 2050 ban on the sale of fuel vehicles will significantly reduce the probability of consumers buying EVs by 44.4%,but the 2030 ban on the sale of fuel vehicles can increase the probability of consumers buying EVs by 82.2%.The parameters of the simulation model are set and calibrated according to the EV market data in 2010 and questionnaire survey results.The basic simulation results show that according to current trend of EV market development,the price and driving range of EVs will be greatly increased in the future,but EV technology will not pose a threat to the market dominance of internal combustion engine technology.The market share of EVs will fall back to around 1%due to the abolishment of subsidy policy.If the personal norms were activated,the driving range of EVs and the energy efficiency of fuel vehicles can be significantly improved,and as a latecomer,new EV manufacturers can also improve the stability of retention and profitability.The market share of EVs would increase to 13.56%.The policy simulation results show that if the descriptive normative intervention of the type of demonstration promotion is implemented,regardless of the intensity of the normative intervention,the average price and energy consumption of EVs have almost no significant change.However,the profitability,product performance and market share of EV manufacturers have been improved and the average market share of EVs has increased more significantly under the intervention of high-intensity descriptive norms.The increase increased from 1.84%to 5.54%,and the number of EV companies remained increased from 11 to 12.If the prohibitive norm intervention measures like the ban on the sale of fuel vehicle were implemented,the evolution of EV industry will be more sensitive to the implementation time of the ban on the sale of fuel vehicle.The announcement of the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles in 2030 will significantly increase the driving range and market share of EVs,and accelerate the breakthrough of core technologies.After 2036,EV users will fully occupy the market,with 87 incumbent enterprises.However,the announcement of the 2050 ban on the sale of fuel vehicles will lead to a decline in the market share and profitability of EV enterprises for a long time,speeding up the process of survival of the fittest.It is not until 2040 that the number and market share of EV enterprises resume to grow.After 2056,fuel vehicles will completely withdraw from the market,and the number of EV incumbents is 44. |
