A Study Of Strategic Petroleum Reserve Modeling Based On Price Perspective

Strategic Petroleum Reserve(SPR)is an important policy tool for oil-importing country to maintain energy security and market stability.The modeling research of SPR is a field that combines the theory of management science & engineering and energy economics.After decades of exploration,scholars have made great achievements in SPR research,and developed mature research methods and a relatively comprehensive research framework.In recent years,due to some great changes in market supply and demand,the international oil price fluctuates against a more complex background.Accordingly,relative academic research also needs to be improved.This dissertation adopts the dynamic econometrics model,the static cost optimization model and dynamic model of value analysis,and other methods to analyze the role of SPR as a regulator of market,the factor influencing the international oil prices,the indicator of price fluctuation trends,and discuss the optimal scale and the rotation scheme of China's SPR under different oil price trends.The main work and innovation points of this dissertation are reported as follows.(1)One of the difficult problems in SPR model construction is how to reasonably predict the oil price trend.To solve this problem,a multivariable Vector Error Correction(VEC)model regarding annual international oil price is established in order to provide a new operational method of oil price trend forecasting.Specifically,through data-testing methods,some influential factors,involving several economic variables in supply and demand,proved effective to annual international oil price trend.Furthermore,the external sample prediction is adopted to evaluate the effectiveness of annual price trend forecasting.Meanwhile,variance decomposition and pulse response analysis are utilized to compare the influence of each variables on the prediction results and to describe how other variables are influenced under the impact of SPR size.It provides some references for the modeling research of SPR since the multivariable annual VEC model is reliable to some extent in the process of international oil price trend predicting.(2)The monthly VEC models are constructed to run a quantitative analysis of the interplay between the SPR size,oil market gap of supply and demand,the international oil price in the regular market as supplement of existing study so as to improve the existing research regarding SPR's market influence.The results of quantitative analysis show that the SPR is an effective policy tool,which can not only affect the international oil price,but also regulate market supply and demand.On the other hand,U.S.SPR strategy mainly reflects the government's attitude towards energy security and the risk appetites for oil supply,which is less affected by market changes.(3)A new cost variable which reflects financial value of SPR is added to the static basic cost model of SPR.Thereby,a new cost model is set up to fully embody the influence of the international crude oil price fluctuations on the SPR optimal scale and provides a new perspective for the related research.By comparing the optimal solutions of basic cost model and new model,this dissertation reveals the relationship between international oil price and SPR optimal scale: the higher the current price,the smaller the corresponding optimal and vice versa;at the same time,when the future price shows the trend of rising,the optimal scale becomes larger and the optimal scale is smaller when the trend is reversed.(4)To reflect the SPR financial losses accumulated by oil volatilization and deterioration in long-term storage,this dissertation constructs loss functions of quantity and quality.Combined with the impacts of international oil price fluctuation,this dissertation establishes dynamic value analysis models to discuss the value change of SPR during both the periods of storage and rotation circle.In addition,the feasibility of minimizing the long-term storage loss by optimizing the rotation mode is confirmed and all of the above-mentioned research improves the study on interactive mechanism of SPR.The results of modeling calculation and comparative analysis show that deterioration during the standing deposit is the main component of the SPR's value loss.Fortunately,this sort of loss can be effectively reduced through initiative rotation circles.Specifically,SPR can minimize the financial loss of long-term storage by adjusting the rotation period and batch.