Structural Changes And Driving Forces Of China's CO₂ Emissions Based On Provincial Multi-Regional Input-output Model

Climate change,caused by the increasing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases,has become a major concern around the world.As the main component of the greenhouse gas emissions,CO₂ emissions have been a focus of attention in terms of the mitigation of climate change.The Paris Agreement,signed in 2016,calls for efforts from all nations and aims to“hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels”,which has led to more concerns and higher expectations to China,the world largest CO₂ emitter.However,while China's pledging support for the agreement,there are difficulties and uncertainties in the CO₂ mitigation of China:the high growth rate of the economy has led to a rapid growth in CO₂ emissions;there are large variances between Chinese regions;in addition,the economic connections between Chinese regions are complex and dynamic.Under this circumstance,this thesis systematically analyses China's provincial CO₂ emissions and inter-provincial transfers and investigates the driving forces behind China's CO₂ emissions at the provincial level.The policy implications are then discussed to put forward corresponding policy suggestions.The main work of this thesis is as follows:(1)A Chinese provincial multi-year multi-regional input–output(MRIO)model is constructed.By combining the uniqueness of data bases and consistency of method throughout the years,this study improves the methods for compiling the Chinese provincial MRIO tables.Further,based on the Chenery-Moses model,a Chinese provincial multi-year MRIO model is constructed.Price deflators at the sector level are then applied to convert the current-price model into the constant price.The model covers 31 Chinese mainland provinces,with 37 product sectors for the years 2002,2007 and 2012.(2)CO₂ emissions of Chinese provinces at the sector level are estimated.CO₂ emissions from the fossil fuel consumption and the production process of cement are calculated.The RAS method is adopted to estimate the fossil fuel consumption in sectors and energy types that were lacking.The most up-to-date Chinese official emission factors are then applied to calculate the CO₂ emissions.The results of the estimation cover 30 Chinese mainland provinces excluding Tibet,with 37 product sectors and 2household sectors for the years 2002,2007 and 2012.The regional and sectoral features of China's provincial CO₂ emissions are analysed based on the results.(3)The structural changes in China's CO₂ emissions are explored at the provincial level.Based on the Chinese provincial MRIO model and CO₂ emission data,the production-and consumption-based emissions of Chinese provinces are analyzed using the environmentally-extend MRIO method.In particular,China's inter-provincial emission transfers in 2002-2012 are investigated,highlighting the changes in transferring directions,dominant demands,as well as emission flows along the industry chains.The results show that the unidirectional emission transfers from the central and western provinces to the eastern provinces in 2002-2007 turned into bidirectional emission transfers between the central and western provinces and the eastern provinces in 2007-2012;different from the situation in 2002-2007,where the inter-provincial emissions transfers were determined by both investments and exports,the provincial emissions and their transfers in 2007-2012 was largely dominated by investments.(4)The driving forces behind Chinese CO₂ emissions are explored at the provincial level.After analyzing the structural changes in China's CO₂ emissions,a structural decomposition analysis based on MRIO is performed to quantify the CO₂ emission effects from changes in six factors,including CO₂intensity,production technology,sources of intermediate use,sources of final demand,products mix of final demand,and scale of final demand from 2002 to 2012.The effects are further analyzed at the provincial and sector levels.The results show that the major driving demands of China's CO₂ emissions have shifted from exports and investment in 2002-2007 to investment in 2007-2012;while the CO₂intensities of resource-based high-emission sectors continuously improved from 2002 to 2012,some sectors with low final CO₂ intensity but high industry chain emissions indicated high carbonization trend.