| Under the premise of global energy crisis and environmental protection, the traditional energy industry development has been constrained while new energy industry is encouraged in order to reduce environmental pollution andcarbon emissions.The continuous development of wind power technology in recent years makes it the main direction of new energy development. As the top one country in terms of wind power installed capacity, China formed a complete industrial chain of wind power. The continueprogress of technologies and the drop of cost in wind power generation make the wind power industry promising for further development and growth. Since a large number of wind farms have put into operation, they will have to consider their own revenue while they provide a large number of clean energy at the same time. The wind farmrevenue management research in this paper will be helpful for them to realize balanced development amongeconomic, social, environmental and other aspects, which will certainly contribute to the wind power industry development.As a renewableenergy, wind power has zero emission, which make it the major area of new energy power development. The revenue of wind power company has some uncertaintydue to uncontrollable changes and randomness of their internal and external environment. By researching the uncertainty revenue management of wind power, one can distinguish clearly the main factorsimpacting wind power operating income. on the basis of these effective theory and models, the law of wind power operationuncertainty cab be explored to avoid negative impact on operating income from the wind power uncertainty, which will increase the level of wind power operating revenue.Firstly, thispaper analyzes the wind power development status, and then, research is made on the wind power operation concept, uncertainty theory and revenue management. Then,this paper proposed the framework of the wind farm uncertainty revenue management research, thewind operating income is divided into internal revenue and external revenue including social and environmental gains. Research for internal economy gains begin from two aspects consisting of major operating costs and operating income. For the major operating cost, a detailed analysis of various costs are applied,also the sensitivity analysis are applied on the major uncertainty factors;For the operating income, Firstly, the wind power output prediction were studiedbecause it is not only the major uncertain factor but also the basis for future earnings calculation.The studies on power output prediction will reduce the impact by wind power uncertainty it can also provide support for futurewind power gainsanalysis.Secondly, the wind power pricestrategyhas been studied, this provides the necessary pricing theory and modeling methods for future competitive environment of wind farm. On this basis, the consolidated wind power operating income evaluation model considering the internal economy gains, the external social and environmental gains are conducted, which solve the difficulties in wind power operator revenue managementconsolidated income levels evaluation. Finally, combining the research, this paper design and develop the new energy wind power revenue management information system. The main contents are as the following aspects:(1)International and domestic wind power industry development are analyzed. Firstly, the international wind power development characteristics are studied, Secondly, Chinese wind power development characteristics and policy measures were analyzed according to the domestic wind power development status. All these provide the foundation for further study of wind power revenue management in this paper.(2) A comprehensive analysis for the basic framework andimportant indicators of wind power operationis applied, then, the uncertainty theory and revenue management theories are studied. Then, revenue management methods based on forecasts, quantity, price, evaluationare analyzed. Finally, the main research framework is presented, which provides a theoretical basis for further research.(3) One important factor influencing wind power operating income is the operating costsis.This paper made anin-depth analysis of the new energy wind power operating cost structure consisting the investment and construction costs, operation and maintenance costs, operational finance costs and other aspects of wind power operating cost. With an eye to the changes the uncertain cost, empirical sensitivity analysis on uncertainty cost is applied on a real case happened to a wind farm in western China.(4) The wind power output is a major factor impacting the wind power revenue. The uncertainty of the wind power is also the source of itsuncertainty. An accurate prediction on wind power output can not only reduce this uncertainty but also provide a basis for future wind power revenue analysis. Therefore, the research of wind power prediction is an important component of revenue management research section. This paper presented two forecasting methods, one is BPNN based on X-R control chart and the other is LS-SVM model based on fuzzy group theory andempirical analysis of two models are applied, results show that the model has good predictive ability.(5) The price research of wind power is an important part of uncertainty revenue management. Price study is based on the wind power prediction results. Through theory and model research, this paper proposed a price strategy for thewind farmbased on the revenue optimization, thus increasing wind power operating income, and the operatinglevel. As China’s wind power market competition has not yet formed, the price of wind power is simulated in a hypothetical environment. This paper firstly analyzes the relations between wind power operating income and wind power price, then analyzed the current situation of price in domestic and foreign market, proposed wind power pricing methods considering carbon emissions and spinning reserve. Problem is solved by improved ant colony algorithm,finally, a numerical example is applied.(6) Wind power operating income includes not only economic factor, but also social and environmental aspects. A comprehensive and objective evaluation of wind power operating income is also an important aspect ofrevenue management problems. This papers studied comprehensive evaluation for wind power uncertainincome. Firstly, the primary comprehensive evaluation process for wind powerrevenue uncertainty is designed,Then, all the factors related in wind power operationsrevenue are canalizefromeconomy, social, environmental and other aspects, and an comprehensives index system adapt to the characteristics of wind power operating is built. Finally, a comprehensive evaluation model combining subjective and objective weighting based on Nash equilibriums created and an empirical analysis is applied.(7) This paper design and develop a wind power operating revenue management information system. It combines the theory and modeling methods thesis in this paper, comprehensive and complete introduction of the system design and development process is made from the system requirements analysis, system design, system development technology and the environment, system functions, system testing and deployment, and several other aspects. The system provides revenue management decision support and technical support towind power operators to realize intelligence and information management. Some features of the system has been applied in Ningxia grid operator revenue management for the trial, and achieved good effect.Dissertation research is able to provide a theoretical basis for wind power operating revenue management, to provide modeling methods for wind power operating income calculation, analysis and evaluation, to provide software system auxiliary support for wind power operating income analysis and decision-making this paper has good the theoretical value and practical significance. |
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