Research On The Optimization Of The Integrated Energy System Of The Eco-industrial Park Considering Uncertainties

With the transformation of China's energy structure and the development of distributed energy,the traditional energy system development mode,which is mainly based on the vertical extension of a single system,can no longer meet the requirements of energy structure adjustment in improving energy efficiency,ensuring energy security,promoting renewable energy consumption and environmental protection.It is urgent to build an integrated energy system to open up technical barriers,institutional barriers and market barriers among various electricity,heat,cold and gas energy subsystems,so as to promote the complementary and mutual aid of multiple energy sources and the coordinated optimization of multiple systems,which can promote the energy revolution in China on the basis of ensuring energy security.As an important carrier of energy internet,the integrated energy system integrates multiple energy sources such as electricity,heat,cold and gas,and improves the coordination of energy production and consumption through multi-energy complementarity,which has a very important strategic significance for building a clean,low-carbon,safe and efficient modern energy system.It has become an important technological growth point and commanding point in the global energy field,as well as an energy field innovation direction of important business models and development direction of energy industry technology.The eco-industrial park aims to improve the utilization efficiency of energy resources and reduce the emission of pollutants.Through improving the basic equipments,it can realize the clean supply and consumption of energy.The integrated energy system of the eco-industrial park can realize the production,conversion,storage and consumption of various energy sources in the eco-industrial park by coupling the energy distribution network,distributed renewable energy generation equipments,energy conversion equipments(such as CCHP and electric cooling equipments),energy storage equipments(such as battery energy storage equipments and heat storage tank)as well as electricity,heat,cold and gas energy users.However,the characteristics of multiple energy sources such as electricity,heat,cold and gas in the integrated energy system of the eco-industrial park are different,There are uncertainties in the supply side of distributed renewable energy generation and the demand side of electricity,heat,cooling,gas and other loads.And the supply and demand of multiple energy sources are coupled,uncertain and inconsistent in time and space dimensions.Therefore it is urgent to carry out in-depth research on the planning and operation optimization of the integrated energy system of the eco-industrial parks.Considering about the uncertainties of supply and demand sides,this research investigates on the optimization of the integrated energy system of the eco-industrial park.The main research contents are as follows:(1)The characteristics of the integrated energy system in the eco-industrial park are analyzed.Firstly,the connotation of the integrated energy system of the eco-industrial park is discussed,including the connotation of the integrated energy system and the connotation of the integrated energy system of the eco-industrial park.Secondly,it discusses the basic structure of the integrated energy system of the eco-industrial park,analyzes the construction of each energy subsystem,various energy supply and demand and the coupling transformation mechanism in the integrated energy system of the eco-industrial park.Thirdly,it gives the mathematical representation of the basic equipment of the integrated energy system of the eco-industrial park,mainly including the mathematical model of the power supply equipments such as electricity,heat and gas,and the mathematical representation of the energy coupling conversion equipments such as electricity transfered to other energy,gas transfered to other energy,and heat transfered to other nergy.Finally,it analyzes the uncertainty characteristics of the integrated energy system of the eco-industrial park.(2)The prediction model of the uncertainties in supply and demand sides of the integrated energy system in the eco-industrial park is established.Firstly,the paper analyzes the importance and basic logic of the uncertainty prediction of the supply and demand sides of the integrated energy system in the eco-industrial park.Secondly,it introduces the basic methodologies of the uncertainty interval prediction method of the supply and demand sides of the integrated energy system in the eco-industrial park.Thirdly,based on the Bootstrap-ISSA-MKELM combination method,the interval prediction model of the supply side uncertainty of the integrated energy system in the eco-industrial park is established,and an empirical analysis is carried out.Finally,based on the combination of multi task learning and Bootstrap-ISSA-MKELM,an interval prediction model of demand side uncertainty of integrated energy system in the eco-industrial park is constructed,and an empirical analysis is carried out.The uncertainty prediction results of wind power and photovoltaic distributed renewable energy generation and the uncertainty prediction results of electricity,heat,cold and gas demand imply that the prediction performance of the supply and demand sides uncertainty prediction model proposed in this paper is better,which is effective,applicable and feasible.(3)A collaborative planning model of integrated energy system of the eco-industrial park considering the uncertainty of both supply and demand sides is constructed.Firstly.the collaborative planning model of the integrated energy system of the eco-industrial park is constructed.The upper model takes the minimum operation cost of the electricity,heat and gas network as the goal,and the lower model takes the economy,environment and society as the multi-objective.Secondly,we deal with the uncertainty of both supply and demand sides in the collaborative planning model,and use the robustness optimization method to rewrite the collaborative planning model.Thirdly,based on the local search method(Dijkstra algorithm),dual fitting,column constraint generation(C&CG)algorithm and fuzzy best worst method,we provide a collaborative planning model solution method of the integrated energy system of the eco-industrial park considering the uncertainty of both supply and demand sides.Finally,an empirical study of an eco-industrial park in North China is carried out and the results are compared.The results show that the collaborative planning model of the integrated energy system of the eco-industrial park,which considers the uncertainty of supply and demand sides,can take the environment,economy and society,as well as the impact of the uncertainty of supply and demand sides on the system into account,and the planning results are more practical.(4)An optimization model for the operation of the integrated energy system of the eco-industrial park considering the multi-agent interaction strategy is constructed.Firstly,this paper analyzes the multi-agent interaction mechanism of the integrated energy system of the eco-industrial park,including multi-agent composition and multi-agent interaction mechanism.Secondly,with EHO as the leader,EUC and ESO as the follower,the game model of the integrated energy system operation optimization of the eco-industrial park is constructed by using Stackelberg game model.The objective function of EHO optimization model considers economy and environment,the objective function of EUC and ESO optimization model is the profit maximization.Considering the uncertainty of both sides of supply and demand,the robustness of the game model is improved.Thirdly,based on ISSA intelligent optimization algorithm,KKT condition and decoupling algorithm of column constraint generation,the solution method of the integrated energy system operation optimization model of eco-industrial park considering multi-agent interaction strategy and the uncertainty of supply and demand sides is given.Finally,an example of the operation optimization of the integrated energy system of an eco-industrial park in north China is given.The results show that the operation mode and energy transaction mechanism of multiple stakeholders in the established operation optimization model of the integrated energy system of the eco-industrial park considering multi-agent interaction strategy and the uncertainties of supply and demand sides are reasonable,and each stakeholder can achieve their own goals through game.(5)This paper puts forward the business model of energy hub operators in the integrated energy system of the eco-industrial park,and designs the cost compensation incentive mechanism of energy storage operators in the integrated energy system of the eco-industrial park.Firstly,based on the theory of business model canvas,this paper analyzes the business model canvas of energy hub operators,including the market subjects,core resources,value proposition,key business,channels,customer segmentation,customer relationship and profit model of energy hub business.Secondly,based on the assumption of the respective behaviors of energy regulatory agencies and energy storage operators,the cost compensation contract benchmark model of energy regulators and energy storage operators under the condition of information asymmetry is constructed.Based on this model,the optimal incentive contract of cost compensation for energy storage operators is designed with hidden information,hidden behavior conditions and incentive compatibility constraints.The optimal incentive contract of cost compensation for energy storage operators is designed to ensure that the performance rewards obtained by energy storage operators reporting their information to energy regulators are better than hiding their information.Finally,by analyzing the nature of the optimal incentive contract for cost compensation of energy storage operators,we can see that when there are hidden information and hidden behavior,in order to let the energy storage operators display the real information and provide the energy storage services required by the system,the energy regulatory authorities need to give performance incentives including both agency cost and information rent in the optimal incentive contract,among which,the target of agency cost is to ensure that the energy storage operators provide the energy storage services required by the system,and the information rent is to ensure that the energy storage operators display real information.Considering the uncertainties of supply and demand sides,this paper studies the planning,operation,business model and incentive mechanism of the integrated energy system of the eco-industrial park,which provides a reference for the scientific planning,construction and effective operation management of the integrated energy system of the park level eco-industrial park.This research has important theoretical value and practical significance.The method proposed in this paper can also be used in building level or regional level integrated energy system planning,construction and operation management.The business model and incentive mechanism of the integrated energy system of the eco-industrial park proposed in this paper can also provide reference for the operation and decision-making of relevant stakeholders,and also provide some reference for the formulation of relevant policies.