Research On The Cascading Failures Based Reliability Of Multi-modes Public Transit System Under Impact Of Large Passenger Flow From A Large-scale Integrated Passenger Hub Station

Public transit priority is one main support for building a modern integrated transportation system.With the increasing demand for coupling efficiency among urban rail transit,bus transit,and taxis,the reliable operation of multi-modes public transit system is crucial.The research on public transit network(PTN)reliability currently focuses on service reliability such as headway reliability and running time reliability,and lacks system-level research based on network topology.By applying the complex network theory and the complex network invulnerability modeling technology under interdependent perspective,the reliability research development of multi-modes public transit system is further promoted.The traditional PTN invulnerability research has following limitations: i)it mainly focuses on the physical topology and system science;ii)it does not pay special attention to the large-scale integrated passenger hub station that exists as a key node in PTN;iii)the congestion,time-delay and self-organization effects that are close to actual PTN operation are not considered;iv)it lacks a quantitative control optimization method for mesoscopic system reliability.The understanding basis of the cascading failures based reliability(CFR)is provided by analyzing the time-varying complexity and vulnerability of multi-modes public transit system.Then,based on the cascading failures model of complex network,the CFR of multi-modes public transit system under the impact of large passenger flow from a large-scale integrated passenger hub station is studied;thereby the model,evolution algorithm and quantitative control optimization method for CFR are established.The aforementioned advances provide a new perspective for analyzing the PTN reliability-the mesoscopic system reliability based on complex network theory.The main contexts are summarized as follows:(1)Time-varying complexity analysis of multi-modes public transit systemThe relationship between the time-varying complexity of multi-modes public transit system and the large passenger flow of a large-scale integrated passenger hub station is determined,and the time-varying complexity universal testing framework is proposed.Then,based on the case analysis,the adaptability of the universal test framework is respectively verified in the rail transit network and bus transit network.Finally,the association method of time-varying complexity of various public transit modes is given.This section provides a basis for analyzing the intrinsic causes of complex dynamics evolution of cascading failures.(2)Vulnerability analysis of multi-modes public transit systemThe relationship between the vulnerability of multi-modes public transit system and the large passenger flow of a large-scale integrated passenger hub station is determined,and the quantitative identification method for bus-rail coupling station based on Arc GIS software is established.Then,the coupling station vulnerability rule is proposed,and the vulnerability modified analysis model for the composite network is established.Finally,based on the case simulation analysis,the adaptability of vulnerability modified analysis model is verified.This section provides an understanding basis from the macro-invulnerability perspective for analyzing the complex dynamics evolution of cascading failures.(3)CFR model of multi-modes public transit systemThe relationship between the cascading failures of multi-modes public transit system and the large passenger flow of a large-scale integrated passenger hub station is determined.Then,the three-layered network aggregated passenger flow system that considers the load dimension difference between different public transit modes is established,and it can be understood as a kind of traffic demand distribution.Finally,through embedding the congestion,time-delay and self-organization effects into the three-layered network aggregated passenger flow system,the CFR model is established,and the corresponding evolution algorithm is designed.This section provides the quantitatively controllable and accurately described CFR model for describing the complex dynamics evolution of cascading failures.(4)Model control parameter based control optimization method for the CFR of multi-modes public transit systemThe overall evolution diagram of the normal cascading failures of multi-modes public transit system under the impact of large passenger flow from a large-scale integrated passenger hub station is proposed.Then,the control characteristics of model control parameters are simulated,so that the reliability of multi-perspective measurement indicator system of CFR is qualitatively evaluated.Finally,the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)based quantitative grading model of model control parameters is proposed,and the corresponding control optimization strategies are generated.This section gives the control optimization method of CFR from the inside parameters of CFR model.(5)Active control measure based control optimization method for the CFR of multi-modes public transit systemThe control optimization method based on failure load dynamic redistribution(FLDR)pattern is proposed,thereby based on case simulation analysis,the reliability of the proposed FLDR pattern based on link prediction is verified,and corresponding control optimization strategies are finally generated.Additionally,the control optimization method based on system emergency processing capability is proposed,thereby based on case simulation analysis,the control ability of each loading strategy of system emergency processing capability is tested,and corresponding control optimization strategies are finally generated.Finally,the quantitative evaluation method of the control effect of active control measures is given.This section gives the control optimization method of CFR from specific active control measure.