| In recent years,with the continuous deepening of globalization and the continuous advancement of industrialization and urbanization,the Chinese economy has entered an important stage of transformation and development.The extensive economic development model of the past high-speed or even ultra-high-speed economic development has been impossible to achieve under the conditions of resource shortage and environmental constraints.The coexistence of urban expansion and contraction began to appear.A series of problems caused by urban shrinkage have become new challenges and new propositions facing China's new urbanization construction.Strengthening research on urban shrinkage in China is conducive to more scientifically and rationally planning the future development direction of cities,efficient and intensive use of urban land resources,and realizing efficient and coordinated development of people and land.It has important practical significance for promoting the sustainable and high-quality development of Chinese cities.This paper takes 288 cities above the prefecture level in China as the research object,and introduces the concept of shrinkage into the urban system for research.First define the connotation and characteristics of urban shrinkage,construct a comprehensive evaluation index system for urban shrinkage in China,use subjective and objective weighting method,that is,a combination of analytic hierarchy process and entropy method to assign values,and use a multi-index comprehensive evaluation method,that is,weighted calculation The sum method calculates the comprehensive contraction of Chinese cities and the index of population contraction,economic contraction,and social contraction,and makes an overall evaluation of Chinese urban contraction and its temporal and spatial differentiation.Secondly,based on the traditional population perspective,structural analysis of urban population shrinkage is carried out from different levels such as urban scale hierarchical structure and regional spatial structure.Thirdly,in order to further explore the influencing factors and driving mechanism of urban shrinkage in China,we first conduct a theoretical analysis on the influencing factors of urban shrinkage,and then use the grey relational analysis method to quantitatively measure the influencing factors of urban shrinkage in China,and combine the comprehensive and structural perspectives.The temporal and spatial differentiation characteristics of China's urban shrinkage and the current specific conditions of China's urban development will analyze the internal driving mechanism that affects its shrinkage.Finally,the countermeasures for China's urban shrinkage are proposed.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Based on a comprehensive perspective,China's shrinking cities have grown significantly with significant regional differences.In terms of the number and severity of shrinking cities,from 2012 to 2018,there were 25 comprehensive shrinking cities,59 shrinking population cities,45 economic shrinking cities,and 3 social shrinking cities.There are regional differences in the severity of different types of shrinking cities;In terms of the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of shrinking cities,the number of shrinking cities of various types in 2015-2018 has shown a significant growth trend compared with 2012-2015,and the spatial distribution has spread from the three northeastern provinces to other provinces in the country.In terms of the combination of shrinking cities in different dimensions,the population-economy shrinking cities are relatively large,the population-economy-society full-dimensional shrinking cities and population-society shrinking cities are relatively small,and there are no economic-social shrinking cities,and Both the full-dimensional shrinking cities and the two-dimensional shrinking cities show a significant increase in the number;in the identification of long-term and short-term urban shrinkage,all types of shrinking cities are concentrated in the Northeast,while the shrinking of old industrial cities occupy The main status of shrinking cities in the Northeast,and the number of long-term shrinking cities is less than that of short-term shrinking cities.(2)From a structural perspective,China's urban shrinkage differs due to the scale of hierarchy and location distribution.From the perspective of the hierarchical scale structure of shrinking cities,the number of small cities in shrinking cities in 2012-2018 is the largest,with 23,followed by medium-sized cities with 17,9,large cities,and 1 megacities,while megacities did not appear.The phenomenon of shrinking,and the number of small cities and medium cities in the shrinking cities in 2015-2018 has shown a significant increase compared with 2012-2015,while the changes in large cities,megacities and megacities are not obvious;in addition,in terms of spatial distribution,regardless of Small cities,medium-sized cities,large cities,and mega-cities are mainly concentrated in the Northeast.From the perspective of the regional spatial structure of shrinking cities,2012-2018 urban growth-suburban and surrounding counties and cities growth and urban growth-suburbs and surrounding counties and cities contracted more cities,while urban areas contracted-suburbs and surrounding counties and cities grew And urban shrinkage-the number of shrinking cities in suburbs and surrounding counties and cities is small,and their spatial distribution characteristics are also different.From the perspective of the spatial autocorrelation of urban growth and shrinkage in China,there are certain spatial agglomeration characteristics,among which the three northeastern provinces become typical shrinking urban agglomeration areas.(3)The influencing factors and driving mechanism of China's urban shrinkage have their own characteristics.Using the grey relational analysis in the DPS processing software to explore the influencing factors of China's urban shrinkage,it can be found that the correlation between urban traffic,environmental quality,population growth and technological innovation,medical conditions,people's living standards and industrial structure and urban shrinkage Above 0.7,there is a strong correlation.Among them,urban traffic,environmental quality,population growth and technological innovation have a more significant impact on urban shrinkage.According to the identified main influencing factors,the mechanism of action is analyzed.This summarizes the types of urban contraction based on the driving mechanism,which mainly include core city adsorption type,resource-led industry exhaustion type,administrative division adjustment type,policy-oriented type and other factor types.China is currently in the stage of rapid urbanization development.The polarization effect of central cities or regions is still significant,leading to shrinkage of surrounding cities or regions.This is the biggest difference in the causes of shrinkage between Chinese and Western cities.(4)Strategies to deal with the shrinking of Chinese cities should be diversified.First of all,it is necessary to maintain a positive and optimistic attitude based on the development stage of the city,international and domestic development trends and the natural background conditions of the specific area,and follow the principles of overall planning,local conditions,time and city conditions.From the perspectives of revitalizing urbanization strategy,smart shrinkage of cities,and improving urban resilience,we can flexibly respond to the problem of urban shrinkage in China.For example,for ecologically fragile cities that are not suitable for large-scale development,they should choose appropriate shrewd shrinkage to seek development;cities suitable for large-scale development should encourage technological innovation,cultivate new kinetic energy,create shrinking regional growth poles,and actively introduce emerging industries.Formulate a series of preferential policies for investment promotion to enhance urban vitality and accelerate urban transformation and development;for all shrinking cities,enhancing urban resilience is an important guarantee for achieving sustainable and high-quality urban development. |
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