Research On The Influence Of Minimum Wage Policy On Labor Market

The minimum wage policy is an important policy tool for protecting workers’ decent employment and wage income rights,and it is also a controversial research topic in economics.Regarding the impact of the minimum wage on the labor market,different economic theories have given different or even diametrically different conclusions.In the neoclassical market model,an increase in the minimum wage will reduce the number of equilibrium employment;in the buyer’s monopoly market model,the minimum wage A modest increase will increase the equilibrium employment and wage level.In the multiple labor market theory,the minimum wage increase will generate employment,labor supply and wage income for the formal and informal sectors,high-skilled workers and low-skilled workers.Different effects;in the endogenous search model,the effect of the minimum wage increase on employment depends on the elasticity of labor supply and labor demand to the minimum wage,which raises the level of wages near the minimum wage,but reduces the income of the workers who want the most work,Exacerbating income inequality.It can be seen that economic theory does not give a consistent conclusion on the policy effect of the minimum wage,and whether the minimum wage meets the policy goals still needs to be answered by empirical research.A lot of research has been done on the policy effect of the minimum wage on the labor market abroad,but no consensus has been reached.The minimum wage system in China has not been established for a long time,and domestic scholars have not done much research in this area.In recent years,the minimum wage increase and enforcement efforts have continued to increase,and the impact of the minimum wage adjustment on the labor market has become a problem that cannot be ignored.However,the characteristics of Chinese labor market are very different from those of developed countries.The mechanism of the impact of minimum wages on the labor market is also different from that of developed countries.The impact of labor market factors such as income distribution and so on,it is particularly important to propose minimum wage adjustment targets and adjustment paths for different labor groups.This article analyzes the impact of the adjustment of the minimum wage on employment and wage income from the perspective of workers.First,it summarizes how the minimum wage system affects the equilibrium of the labor market in different market environments,theoretically analyzes the market effect of the minimum wage policy,and builds an economic theoretical basis for the effect of the minimum wage on employment and wages.Then analyze the implementation of Chinese minimum wage policy and the characteristics of low-income groups,and identify the main groups affected by the minimum wage policy.On this basis,empirical research is carried out from three aspects: the relationship between minimum wage and employment,minimum wage and labor supply,and minimum wage and wage distribution.First,study the impact of minimum wage on employment based on a spatial perspective.Based on the spatial equilibrium theory of minimum wages by Thiess and Alexander(2009),construct a multi-region economy market with free labor movement.Use provincial panel data to analyze the effect of minimum wage policies The spatial impact of the labor market equilibrium in each region.The spatial panel Dubin model is used to estimate the impact of local minimum wage adjustments and neighboring minimum wage adjustments on employment,and to analyze the differences in eastern,central,and western regions.Second,the labor supply effect analysis of the minimum wage.By incorporating the changes in the minimum wage standard into the analysis framework of labor supply decisions,the factors that affect the work decisions of low-income people are separated,and a binary logit model and a multiple logit model are established.The CGSS survey data from 2010 to 2015 estimates the labor supply elasticity of groups affected by the minimum wage and analyzes how changes in the minimum wage standard affect individual work decisions.Third,the study of the impact of minimum wage on wage distribution,introducing the idea of double difference into an unconditional quantile regression model,using 2012 and 2013 CGSS data,and taking non-agricultural workers who use work income as the form of labor income in the survey sample as a research object,the influence of the 2012 minimum wage increase on the wage distribution of different types of non-agricultural workers was analyzed.Under the above research framework,the following conclusions are drawn based on the research in relevant chapters:1.The ratio of minimum wage to average wage in China is relatively low,and there is a large difference in minimum wages among provinces and cities.The minimum wages in different provinces and cities are adjusted at least once every two years,and the adjustment time is not uniform.The absolute differences and relative growth rates of the minimum wage standards in different provinces and cities are quite different.Compared with other countries,the ratio of minimum wages to average wages in China is lower,and central China The region is higher than the east and west regions.2.The demographic and working attributes of low-income groups are obvious.The proportion of low-income groups in the age series shows a "U" trend with high ends and low middle ends.The proportion of women with low income is 1.78 times that of men.The probability that workers in agricultural households earn less than the minimum wage is about 2.1 times that of non-agricultural households.The education characteristics of low-income groups are very obvious.54% of the non-agricultural workers who have not attended school have lower wages than the minimum wage.36% of the non-agricultural workers with primary education have a low income.To the minimum wage.From the perspective of the work and industry distribution characteristics of low-income groups,low-income groups are mainly distributed among casual workers,casual workers,and freelancers.Among workers who have not signed labor contracts and signed non-fixed-term labor contracts,their income is below the minimum wage standard.The proportion is relatively high.From the perspective of regional differences,the proportion of low-wage groups in provinces and cities with slower economic development and larger population density tends to be higher.3.The rise in the relative minimum wage will significantly reduce the local employment level,and this negative effect will deepen over time;the rise in the relative minimum wage in geographically adjacent areas will increase the local employment level;the existence of labor resources between provinces in the eastern region The competition is reflected in the increase in the minimum wage in neighboring areas,which will reduce the level of local employment.The employment density of China’s provinces and cities shows a high level of concentration in the eastern,southern and central regions of the country,and a low level of concentration in the western region.The labor force participation rate and labor force ratio show high levels in the northern and southeastern coastal regions.High agglomeration,some western regions show low and low agglomeration status,and all three employment indicators show strong spatial correlation.In general,the increase of the minimum wage relative to the average wage will significantly reduce the current level of employment.As the implementation of the minimum wage policy goes on,the negative impact of the increase in the minimum wage on employment will further deepen.From the perspective of space spillover effects,neighboring areas The increase of the relative minimum wage has instead increased the level of local employment,and the implementation time of the minimum wage in neighboring areas has no significant spillover effect on local employment.In terms of different regions,the increase in the minimum wage in the eastern region has the greatest impact on employment levels,followed by the western region.The change in the minimum wage in the central region has no significant impact on employment;the increase in the minimum wage in neighboring provinces in the eastern region has an impact on local employment levels.It is negative,indicating that there is competition among labor resources among the provinces in the eastern region.4.The increase of the minimum wage standard has increased the overall labor participation rate,mainly increasing the labor participation level of young workers aged 17-25 and unmarried women;it has also increased the proportion of non-agricultural employment and the enthusiasm of workers for job hunting.Through the regression analysis of the Probit model,the following main conclusions are drawn: the increase of the minimum wage raises the overall labor participation rate.For every 1% increase in the minimum wage,the overall labor participation rate significantly increases by 0.089 percentage points;the increase of the minimum wage standard has increased the participation level of 17-25 years old young workers and unmarried female workers,a minimum wage increase of 1% can increase the labor participation rate of young workers of 17-25 years old by 0.246 percentage points,and increase the labor participation rate of unmarried women by 0.375 percentage points.Taking unworked workers as a reference object,the increase in the minimum wage has increased the proportion of non-agricultural employment,and also increased the proportion of finding workers to a certain extent,which has no impact on agricultural work.5.The minimum wage has a certain peak effect on the overall wage distribution,and the spillover effect is not obvious.After classifying the workers,it is found that there is a positive spillover effect.The sub-sample test found that the minimum wage will significantly increase the wage level of low-income workers among female workers,non-farm household workers,and highly educated workers,and it will affect low-income groups among male workers,agricultural household registration,and loweducation workers Not obvious.In addition,this paper also returns the workers in different forms of work,and finds that the minimum wage will increase the wage level of low-income workers who have signed labor contracts,party and government agencies and public institutions,and state-owned or state-controlled enterprises,without labor contracts.Corporate and social groups and self-employed,and lowincome individuals in private and private enterprises have not benefited.Finally,according to the above conclusions,this paper puts forward some suggestions: regulate the adjustment and implementation of minimum wage standard,effectively guarantee the living standards of low-income workers;formulate differentiated minimum wage for different occupations and age groups,guide the coordinated development of the minimum wage standard and labor market;strengthen the Research on the appropriateness of the minimum wage standard,and solve the lowincome problem The basic living needs of workers and their families,the establishment and improvement of the minimum wage evaluation mechanism,and the improvement of the operation efficiency of the minimum wage policy.Compared with the existing literature,this paper has the following innovations:1.Through the classification of the demographic characteristics and working attributes of the labor groups,this paper reveals the policy impact of the minimum wage on each labor group.What is directly affected by the minimum wage policy is generally the group of workers whose wage level is near the minimum wage standard.Based on the analysis of the characteristics of low-income groups,this paper studies how the types of workers with high proportion of low-income groups are affected by the minimum wage,and the research object is more targeted.2.The spatial equilibrium theory of multi regional labor market is introduced to analyze the employment effect of minimum wage in China.The spatial effect of minimum wage on employment is found,and the long-term effect of policy implementation is considered.In the past,using macro data to analyze the effect of China’s minimum wage policy,rarely considering the balance between labor markets in different regions.Based on the theory of multi regional labor market equilibrium,this paper uses the panel space Doberman model to analyze the impact of the adjustment of minimum wage on the local employment market in our province and neighboring provinces.3.This paper introduces double difference into unconditional quantile regression model,and puts forward a more robust method to analyze the influence of minimum wage on wage distribution.The coefficient of the unconditional quantile is better than that of the quantile.By adding the experimental group dummy variable,the period dummy variable and the policy effect dummy variable to the regression model of the unconditional quantile,we can analyze the policy impact on the important quantile of the minimum wage,and get a stable estimate of the policy effect.