| The issue,circulation and other activities of national debt would inevitably lead to changes in market liquidity,which would have an impact on the money supply, market interest rates and exchange rates;the above effect of national debt is finance effects of national debt.In2012, China's market-oriented interest rate reform steps into deep stage,and the intermediate target of monetary policy will be changed from money supply intermediate target to rate intermediate target.so the finance effects of national debt not only affects the normal operation of the financial markets but also affects China's monetary policy conditions.In the real economy, the national debt has become an indispensable tool for the regulation.On the one hand,the national debt can raise funds for construction flexiblely;on the other hand, as an important part of the financial markets, the national deb can be used as a monetary policy tool.Thus, the national debt play an important role in China's economic development.The national debt has multi-level functions. It is a financial instrument; It is a liquid instruments; It plays a roal in the adjustment of economic structure and economic cycle and so on. With the development of economics, the function of national debt has beening studied deeply. The finance effects of national debt has important theoretical and practical significance in the new historical period.This paper will analyzed the finance effects of national debt,aiming at deepening the financial effect of national debt and improving the financial markets and social development.This paper is divided into nine chapters, and research content of each chapter is as follows:The first chapter is an introduction. It describes the background, significance, research methods, important part and difficult part, papers structural arrangements, innovation and shortcomings. The second chapter is the bond theory. In this section, firstly the basic concepts of bonds, the function of bond and the evolution of bond theory will be clarified.The third chapter is the related research of national debt and other field. In this section, first of all the economic effects of national debt will be sorted from the effect of national debt on public spending. private spending, private consumption. inflation and economic growth; Subsequently, the research of the financial effects of national debt will be clarified from the money supply, interest rates and the exchange rates respectively.The fourth chapter is the development process and the status of the national debt. In this section, the development process and the status of the national debt for Chinese national debt will be introduced;Subsequently, the conditions of the United States and Japan will be introduced simply.Chapter V is the theoretical analysis for the financial effect of national debt. In this part.the effect mechanisms of national debt on the money supply, interest rate effect will be clarified in detail.Chapter VI is the empirical analysis of the national debt on money supply First, a brief introduction of the related empirical analysis will be gave, specifically including stationary test, Johansen cointegration test, the long-term equilibrium relationship and the error correction model. Then with cash.the narrow money supply and broad money supply be used as measurment of money supply, the effect of national debt of money supply on money supply will be analyzed.Chapter VII is the empirical analysis of the national debt on interest rate with RMB lending rate and RMB deposit interest rate be used as measurment of interest rate, the effect of national debt of money supply on interest rate will be analyzed.Chapter VIII is the empirical analysis of the national debt on exchage rate with the Sino-Japanese rate and Sino-US exchange rate be used as measurment of exchange rate, the effect of national debt of money supply on exchange rate will be analyzed.Chapter IX is research findings, policy advice and research prospects. Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis of the financial effects of the national debt,some conclusions will be gave; Then this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations; Finally, based on conclusions of this paper research prospects will be proposed.In empirical analysis, taking into account the exchange rate of China's reform in2005and the balance of debt management system since2006, this article will use1995.3-2012.12as the sample period. And2006.1will be taken as the cut-off point, so1995.3-2005.12.is defined as stage one,2006.1-2012.12is defined as stage two.In the two subsample period,regression analysis is implemented, respectively. It concluded as follows:1. the effect of national debt on the money supply is different in stage one and stage two.Specifically reflect the following characteristics:(1) according to the long-term equilibrium relationship,in the phase one, the effect of national debt on the money supply is as follows:national debt issued has no effect on cash, the narrow money supply and broad money supply;however, the balance of national debt has positive effect on cash, the narrow money supply and broad money supply.In stage two, the effect of national debt on the money supply is as follows:national debt issued has negative effect on cash, has no effect on the narrow money supply,has positive effect the broad money supply;however, the balance of national debt has posive effect on cash, the narrow money supply and broad money supply.(2) according to the error correction model, in the phase one, the effect of national debt on the money supply is as follows:national debt issued has no effect on cash, the narrow money supply,but has negabive effect on broad money supply;and, the balance of national debt has no effect on cash, the narrow money supply,but has negabive effect on broad money supply.In stage two, the effect of national debt on the money supply is as follows:both national debt issued and the balance of national debt has no effect on cash, the narrow money supply and the broad money supply.(3) when subjected to outside interference, each level of the money supply adjusts to the equilibrium level mainly as follows:in stage one, when the amount of cash,the narrow money supply or broad money supply is disturbed,they will adjust to the equilibrium level gradually.in stage two,when the amount of cash,the narrow money supply and broad money supply is disturbed.they will not adjust to the equilibrium level.2. the effect of national debt on the interest rate is different in stage one and stage two.Specifically reflect the following characteristics:(1) according to the long-term equilibrium relationship,in the phase one, the effect of national debt on the interest rate is as follows:national debt issued has no effect on both RMB lending rate and RMB deposit interest rate;however, the balance of national debt has positive effect on both RMB lending rate and RMB deposit interest rate.In stage two. the effect of national debt on the interest rate is as follows:national debt issued has potive effect on both RMB lending rate and RMB deposit interest rate; however, the balance of national debt has no effect on RMB lending rate,has negative effect RMB deposit interest rate.(2)according to the error correction model.in the phase one, the effect of national debt on the interest rate is as follows:both national debt issued and the balance of national debt has no effect on both RMB lending rate and RMB deposit interest rate.In stage two, the effect of national debt on the interest rate is as follows:both national debt issued and the balance of national debt has no effect on both RMB lending rate and RMB deposit interest rate.(3) when subjected to outside interference, each level of the interest rate adjusts to the equilibrium level mainly as follows:in stage one, when the amount of RMB lending rate or RMB deposit interest rate is disturbed,they will not adjust to the equilibrium level gradually.in stage two, when the amount of RMB lending rate or RMB deposit interest rate is disturbed.they will not adjust to the equilibrium level.3. the effect of national debt on the exchange rate is different in stage one and stage two.Specifically reflect the following characteristics:(1) according to the long-term equilibrium relationship.in the phase one, the effect of national debt on exchange rate is as follows:national debt issued has no effect on Sino-Japanese rate and Sino-US exchange rate;however, the balance of national debt has positive effect on Sino-Japanese rate, has no effect on Sino-US exchange rate.In stage two, the effect of national debt on exchange rate is as follows:national debt issued has no effect on Sino-Japanese rate and Sino-US exchange rate;however, the balance of national debt has positive effect on Sino-US rate, has no effect on Sino-Japanese exchange rate.(2)according to the error correction model,in the phase one, the effect of national debt on exchange rate is as follows:both national debt issued and the balance of national debt has no effect on both Sino-Japanese rate and Sino-US exchange rate.In stage two, national debt issued has positive effect on Sino-Japanese rate, has no effect on Sino-US exchange rate.the balance of national debt has positive effect on Sino-US rate, has no effect on Sino-Japanese exchange rate.(3) when subjected to outside interference, each level of the exchange rate adjusts to the equilibrium level mainly as follows:in stage one, when the amount of Sino-Japanese rate and Sino-US exchange rate is disturbed,they will adjust to the equilibrium level gradually.in stage two,when the amount of Sino-Japanese rate is disturbed,they will adjust to the equilibrium level gradually;however. when the amount of Sino-US rate is disturbed,they will not adjust to the equilibrium level.Thesis possible innovations mainly reflected in the following aspects:1.empirical test of the effect of national debt on exchange ratethe effect of national debt on exchange rate in existing research is only from the theoretical aspects.However,it lacks of empirical analysis of the effect of national debt on exchange rate. Chinese national debt be used as the research object, the effect of national debt on exchange rate is empirically tested.2. the financial effect on the national debt has been redefinedEarly literature for financial effect of national debt is not clearly defined between financial effect and other economic effects.Because interest rates, exchange rates, inflation rate is the most important and most basic indicator of an economy,and inflationary effects of debt is also due to the amount of money supply.So this article will redefine the financial effects of the national debt into interest rate effect, the exchange rate effect, the effect of the money supply.And the inflationary effects of debt, macro-control effects, policy coordination effects, and balance of payments effects are defined as derivative effect, and did not addressed in this study.3.the verification of financial effect is more deeply this article studies the financial effects of debt balance with controlling the amount of bonds issued, at the same time industrial production value, the deficit, consumption, investment, exports and other control variables is controlled.At the same time there are many inadequacies in this paper:First of all, there is no monthly GDP data in existing statistical data, following most of the research paper,this paper uses industrial GDP monthly data for substitution;however, there are some differences between the two varibles. secondly, because the relevant economic indicators is measured difficultly, it can not be possible to introduce all the control variables, which may affect the accuracy of empirical results; in addition, since my theoretical knowledge is limited, so the theoretical analysis and empirical interpretation of the results is not very thorough. |
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