| The offshore financial markets, refers to the use of currency neither regulated by the market government nor the issued government, the offshore financial markets were separated with the country's financial system and the domestic currency country market. The offshore market activities simplicity, high efficiency, low-tax or tax-free, with little regulatory control by the market, becoming the currency to meet the non-resident or foreign financial service needs of the subject. Offshore currency is used by the offshore financial market transactions.Historical experience shows that offshore currency and the existence of offshore financial markets played a great role in promoting currency internationalization process. After being international currency or circulating outside, the international currency offshore trading center come very naturally in the international transaction and international trade demanding, such as the Eurodollar market, the Euroyen market. However, the development of offshore currency trading center would make of currency supply regulation difficulty in the issuance country; make the central bank independence, the stability of monetary policy under threat and challenge. In addition, there were differences between the offshore financial institutions and the onshore on jurisdiction, cost and income structure and regulatory requirements, offshore financial institutions do not have reserve constraints, the offshore market credit expansion may impact on bank credit scale through close association of international financial markets, which affect the amount of money in one country, which will also make the central bank loss of the independence of monetary policy.With the growth of the offshore RMB financial center in Hong Kong, the offshore RMB's trading activity gradually expanded. The offshore RMB's transactions and cross-border flow increasingly attracted China's monetary authorities, academia and the world financial community's attention, so the flow of the offshore RMB, the establish of the offshore RMB market, the impact of monetary policy to the onshore RMB financial markets and China's central bank, they should be systematic researched both from a qualitative but from a quantitative point of view.Establishment of offshore currency and offshore financial center is an important part of international financial development. The rapid development of the offshore RMB and Hong Kong offshore RMB center, created a new form to the development of the offshore currency and offshore financial markets, which promoted foreign offshore financial markets by policies. There have greater differences compared with others, which appeared spontaneous of foreign currency offshore markets by meeting market demand (such as the Eurodollar market), domestic currency offshore markets established by the policy (such as the New York International Banking Facility Eurodollar market; Tokyo, Japan, Euroyen market), as well as member states, the offshore markets appeared through the regional monetary cooperation (such as the Euroeuro markets). First, while China's GDP achieve a formal surpass to Japan and become the world's second economy in2010, but China is still a developing country. There is a clear distinction that a developing country's currency developed as an offshore currency and on this basis to establish offshore financial markets. Second, the offshore RMB appeared and the offshore RMB market established in China, while our capital account is not freely convertible. So there must be a unique development paths and patterns. The RMB cross-border trade settlement as a first step to achieve international strategy, it will be an example for developing country with the development of offshore currency and currency internationalization, in theory, this is also the development of offshore financial theory. This paper focuses the impact of Hong Kong's offshore RMB and the offshore RMB market on PBC's monetary policy. So we studies the effects factors of changes in demand for the offshore RMB, the offshore RMB cross-border flow onto domestic money supply, impact of the offshore RMB market through domestic money market interest rate onto domestic monetary regulation, impact of the offshore RMB market through the exchange rate onto the domestic foreign exchange market regulation. The offshore RMB conduct research from these perspectives might complement and develop offshore financial theory.Research on the offshore RMB is as well as a more important practical significance. First, from a domestic perspective, the offshore RMB will bring relatively far-reaching impact on our financial economy. The development of the offshore RMB market can make us obtain international seigniorage revenue, promote the development of foreign trade, effectively alleviate excessive pressure on our foreign exchange reserves, and help to accelerate our financial reform. The improvement and development of the offshore RMB back channel can provide experience with the free convertibility of capital projects; the market price formation mechanism of Hong Kong's offshore RMB money market and foreign exchange market can facilitate and help our interest rate and exchange rate market-oriented reforms. Second, from the international point of view, the drawbacks of the current international monetary system has been clearly recognized, especially in recent years, several economic and financial crisis has left many countries painful lesson, reform of the international monetary system is necessary. The stable economic background of the offshore RMB, steadily rates and good international reputation, making the RMB become the focus of world attention. It is more important for speeding up and improving the offshore RMB center's building, that the improvement and expansion of the offshore RMB back channel, the establishment of the offshore RMB investment and financing market, the RMB capital account opening gradually realize, external circulation system is stable, has an important role in promoting the RMB's internationalization.This paper is divided into eight chapters, organized as follows:The first chapter is an introduction. First, the background and significance of the research; Secondly, a literature review of relevant research were reviewed, in order to clear the direction of this paper; thirdly, describes the research methods and structure of this arrangement. Finally, the research innovation points deficiencies and future research direction is illustrated.The second chapter analyzes the emergence and development of the major international offshore currency and the offshore RMB. First, the analysis of the Eurodollar (market-driven offshore currency) and the emergence and development of its evolution and meaning deepening; Secondly, the analysis of the Euromark to the Euroeuro (regional monetary cooperation based offshore currency) of the new Eurocurrency in the form of the emergence and development; again, the analysis of the Euroyen (policy-driven domestic offshore currency) the emergence and development; Finally, the emergence and development of the offshore RMB process and product innovation, and give a more comprehensive analysis of Hong Kong's offshore RMB market. Through the introduction and comparative analysis of these kinds of world major offshore currencies development process, we obtained the international offshore currency common features, strong economic strength, the success of institutional arrangements, free trade networks and actively promote the development of regional economic cooperation, which make the offshore RMB and the internationalization of the RMB strategy with reference and enlightenment.The third chapter analyzes the theory and practice of monetary policy. Firstly, an analysis of monetary policy theory, starting from the number of policy and the price of policy, introduced monetary theory and policy of Freedman and Keynes; secondly, respectively analyzes the contradiction between the offshore RMB with the quantity of money policy and price policy implementation; thirdly, the monetary condition index-MCI and its adaptability in China; finally, analyzes the application of the interest rate parity theory and its research in the offshore market.The fourth chapter factors impact on the demand of the offshore RMB by empirical analysis, draw the conclusion:the expected RMB exchange rate, offshore RMB substitution, interest margin between domestic and foreign interest rate, exist long-run equilibrium with offshore currency requirements; the current RMB Offshore demand played more for the speculative demand.The fifth chapter analyzes the impact of the offshore RMB and the RMB cross-border circulation to our domestic money supply. First of all, from the offshore RMB currency market, stock market, foreign exchange market, foreign exchange derivatives market and insurance market survey of RMB cross-border circulation path in Hong Kong; secondly, analyzed the mechanism of the RMB cross-border circulation effect on the domestic money supply and monetary policy; finally, makes an empirical analysis on the influence of the RMB cross-border circulation on the domestic money supply.The sixth chapter makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between the offshore and the onshore RMB interbank interest rates.The seventh chapter discusses the offshore and the onshore RMB exchange rate relationship. The eighth chapter puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions of Hong Kong's offshore RMB market development of international experience. Conclusion on the basis of the study on the theoretical basis and the researches, proposed response to the rapid development of offshore RMB cross-border circulation, the offshore RMB market impact on domestic monetary policy, the influence degree of countermeasures, which establishing risk early warning mechanism of the RMB circulation cross linkage, monetary policy play a variety of coordination with the quantity and price policy, market reform of the RMB interest rate, the RMB exchange rate as soon as possible, gradually health and realization of capital account convertibility.Thesis possible innovation:First, from the theoretical point of view, this paper is based on the theory of monetary policy, interest rate parity theory and the theory of currency substitution, and the introduction of monetary condition index (MCI), relationships between the offshore currency and the offshore currency market on the monetary sovereignty country's monetary policy, the dynamic analysis of the contradiction between offshore currency with the domestic currency price policy and the quantity of monetary policy.Second, from a policy perspective, the distinction in the Eurodollar, the Euromark (Euroeuro) and the euro yen three different types of offshore currency, to analyze the relationship between offshore currency and monetary internationalization, obtains the conclusion that the different economies and economic system should be the development of models have different offshore currency and monetary internationalization, for China is a developing country, capital account is not fully convertible in China, so the offshore RMB and the internationalization of the RMB should have its own characteristics, by means of specific regions (Hong Kong, Singapore, London, Taiwan and Australia) to establish the offshore RMB market, then achieve a gradual internationalization of the RMB.Third, from the perspective of empirical research, this paper systematically analyzed the influence on the RMB demand factors, draw the conclusion the offshore RMB demand played more performance for the speculative demand; on the relationship between the offshore and the onshore RMB interbank money market rates for the thorough analysis of the system, the offshore and the onshore interbank pricing more performance for the two-way volatility spillover effect; put four of the RMB foreign exchange rate (CNY, CNH, DF and NDF) in the same model, they were analyzed systematically on the offshore and the onshore RMB exchange rate, the four foreign exchange market price mechanism, it were obvious unicorn mechanism among them, the offshore RMB foreign exchange market in Hong Kong has shown a leading role on spot foreign exchange market price.Thesis shortcomings:Due to the limited knowledge of the offshore RMB settlement of cross-border trade practice, in the analysis of the effect of offshore RMB cross-border circulation on the domestic money supply, the conclusion may be relatively one-sided. Because of the offshore RMB market in Hong Kong announced the interbank offer rate; this paper use the bank offered rates average value of research on behalf of interbank lending rates price level, the conclusion may be biased. At the same time, interest rates did not consider the bond rate data, conclusions may not be comprehensive. |
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