Impact And Countermeasures Of The National Economic Security Of The Russian Federation On Silk Road Economic Belt Construction

On April 15,2014,Chairman Xi Jinping presided over the Central National Security Council,stressing that it is necessary to accurately grasp the new characteristics and trends in the national security situation,adhere to the overall national security concept,and embark on a road to national security with Chinese characteristics,and specifically put forward the idea that political security is fundamental and economic security is basis.On May 8,2015,President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed and issued the "Joint Statement on the Cooperation of Silk Road Economic Belt and Eurasian Economic Union",which will promote the economic and trade cooperation between China and Russia to a new strategic height.However,in 2014,under the impact of the Ukrainian crisis,European and U.S.economic sanctions,and falling international oil prices,Russian various economic indicators fell sharply,and the economic sanctions have not yet been canceled.Whether Silk Road Economic Belt progresses smoothly or not determines the situation of China’s national economic security.Russia is also inextricably linked with Silk Road Economic Belt.Therefore,strengthening the research on the impact and countermeasures of Russian economic security on Silk Road Economic Belt promotion is imminent.The key issues to be solved in this paper are:(1)Russian national economic security connotation and its guiding ideology for formulating foreign economic policy;(2)The overall situation and development trend of Russian national economic security;(3)The impact and countermeasures of Russian economic security on Silk Road Economic Belt promotion;(4)Coping strategies.This study covers six chapters,and the contents of each part are as follows:The first chapter,introduction,including the background and significance of the topic,research methods,research ideas and technical roadmap.The second chapter,the literature review,including national economic security and Silk Road Economic Belt,and put forward the innovative points and article characteristics.The third chapter,outlined the theoretical framework of national economic security and Silk Road Economic Belt.On this basis,constructed the theoretical framework of “the impact of a country’s economic security on the promotion of foreign economic security policies” or “the impact of foreign economic security on the promotion domestic economic security policies”.The following are based on this framework.The fourth chapter,described Russian national economic security connotations and dimensions,core objectives and safeguard measures.Provides guiding ideas for follow-up analysis and forecastingIn the fifth chapter,using CRM model and Markov chain to conduct the risk assessment and trend forecast of Russian national economic security.For risk assessment,firstly determined the basis for the model selection;Secondly,analyzed the selection advantages;Again,constructed the national economic security index system from economic structure,currency,sovereign debt,banking,and politics.Finally,conducted an empirical analysis.The trend forecast is also analyzed separately from the above five areas.The national economic security risk values provides explanatory variables for the Stata regression in Chapter 6.In the sixth chapter,through five aspects from Sino-Russian and China-five Central economic and trade cooperation,economic cooperation under the SCO framework,link between Silk Road Economic Belt and Eurasian Economic Union,and game between ChinaUS in the Asia Pacific region,analyzed the impact and countermeasures of Russian economic security on Silk Road Economic Belt promotion.The first four sections use a large amount of data and Stata regression model to analyze.The last section uses limited multi-round dynamic game model to build a super and double-strength mathematical game model under strong economic security situation.And through two cases to verify the analysis: “Russia’s sovereign debt crisis in 1998” + “Kosovo crisis in 1998” and “Ukrainian crisis in 2014” + “Russian financial crisis in 2014”.Finally,summarize relevant conclusions and propose coping strategies...