| At present,the world is at a crucial point in the adjustment of monetary policy rules and structural reforms.The debt problem and the redistribution of resources left over from the 2008 financial crisis have not yet been completely resolved,and the emerging "black swan" events in the market continue to impact economic fundamentals.In order to stimulate their economies,some developed countries have adopted unconventional monetary policy measures to cause fluctuations in global commodity prices and changes in capital flows.External shocks to emerging market countries have become increasingly significant,making the implementation of monetary policies in various countries more and more limited.Global monetary policy faces a critical transition period.Kazakhstan is a republic of the Soviet Union,since independence in 1991,monetary policy from scratch,gradually developed and sound.During this period,it experienced two financial crises,respectively in 1998 and 2008.In 2015,under the dual impact of falling international oil prices and capital outflows,monetary policy was transformed to inflation targeting and a free floating exchange rate regime was implemented.Its monetary policy development history and transformation ideas are representative in emerging market countries and have certain reference value.In recent years,China and Kazakhstan have maintained close political and economic exchanges.Especially Kazakhstan has actively responded to General Secretary Xi Jinping's “Belt and Road” Initiative and launched the "Bright Road" economic plan.In this context,conducting a Kazakhstan country study to grasp the reasons,background,and ideas of the transformation of monetary policy,on the one hand,it is conducive to grasping the ideas of monetary policy choices in emerging market countries through sample analysis.On the other hand,it is conducive to fully grasp the national conditions of Kazakhstan and promote financial cooperation between the two countries.Both theoretical and practical significance.Under the above background,on the basis of a comprehensive review of monetary theory,this paper will take Kazakhstan's monetary policy as the research object,make a systematic combing and review and summary of the history and current situation of monetary policy transformation,focus on analyzing the transformation of monetary policy from Kazakhstan to inflation targeting in 2015,analyze the reasons,background,policy implementation and effectiveness evaluation.It reveals the impact of external shocks on the monetary policy of emerging market countries and the trend of monetary policy transformation under the background of deepening global economic integration.This article is divided into eight chapters:Chapter 1: Introduces the background and significance of the topic.It is believed that Kazakhstan has strong research value,has the characteristics of transition countries,energy exporting countries,and emerging market countries,and has sample value for research.At the same time,Kazakhstan is located in the core area of the Silk Road Economic Belt.It is of practical significance to carry out Kazakhstan country studies to promote the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt.Chapter 2: A theoretical review of monetary policy.Combing along the context of objectives-policy operations-policy and evaluation-policy,the basic theoretical analysis framework was determined for the full text.Chapter 3: Sort out the development history of Kazakhstan's monetary policy.Changes in monetary policy are divided into five phases.Through the analysis of different economic and financial conditions at various stages,the formulation of monetary policy objectives,the implementation of monetary policy,and the effectiveness of the policy,grasp the context of the development of Kazakhstan's monetary policy.Chapters 4,5,and 6 are a whole,which comprehensively analyzes the reasons,background,policy practices,and effects evaluation of the transition of Kazakhstan's monetary policy to the inflation targeting.The fourth chapter analyzes the reasons that affect the transformation of monetary policy.It considers that the imbalance of economic structure is the internal source,inflation is the determining factor,and deviation from monetary policy is the direct factor.The transformation of Kazakhstan's monetary policy is a passive choice to deal with the deterioration of the external economic environment.Its roots are the imbalance in the domestic economic structure and excessive dependence on the external economy.Chapter 5: A comprehensive review of the practice of Kazakhstan's monetary policy transformation.It is believed that under the dual impact of falling international oil prices and capital outflows,Kazakhstan's inflation continues to rise,the Tenge exchange rate fluctuates sharply,and the central bank passively transitions to an inflation targeting monetary policy.The new policy framework combines the characteristics of the country,focuses on the realization of inflation targets,strengthens the market pricing mechanism of exchange rates,and improves the transparency of policy implementation.It is a return to the " impossible trinity " economic law.Chapter 6: Evaluation of the effect of Kazakhstan's monetary policy transformation.In the two years since the policy was implemented,inflation has been controlled within the target range set by the central bank,the Tenge exchange rate has stabilized,and the economy has shown a trend of recovery.Empirical results show that after the transition,the independence and effectiveness of Kazakhstan's monetary policy have improved.Chapter 7: Summarizes the research findings of Kazakhstan's monetary policy transformation,and selects Russia and Turkey's policy transformation practices in emerging market countries for comparison and analysis with Kazakhstan.We believe that Russia and Turkey have experienced ups and downs in their transition to inflation targeting monetary policies with little effect.The reason is that policy implementation takes into account multiple objectives and lacks continuity,reflecting the dilemma of“energy price traction” and “capital account domination” faced by emerging market central banks.Chapter 8: Summary.Combining transformation experience,effect evaluation,and current reality,it puts forward policy recommendations for China's monetary policy formulation.There are three main possible innovations in this article:Innovation point 1: Analyze the reasons for Kazakhstan's monetary policy transformation from different perspectives,such as economic structure,inflation,and monetary policy deviation.Using the traditional aggregate supply-to-demand analysis framework to analyze the differences in the causes of inflation in different economic stages in Kazakhstan,the main factors affecting inflation are derived.Further use forward-looking Taylor's rules to measure the degree of monetary policy deviation,and combine theoretical analysis results with emerging market country policy practices to select factors such as exchange rate fluctuations,changes in crude oil prices,changes in international capital flows,and changes in the dollarization of the banking system and monetary policy deviation to construct the SVAR model which empirically quantifies the degree of influence of various factors on monetary policy deviation.We analyze and summarize the main influencing factors and compare them with the practice of policy transformation.Innovation point 2: Use empirical analysis to evaluate the effect of Kazakhstan's monetary policy transformation.Taking into account the characteristics of the emerging market countries in Kazakhstan,while examining the changes in the effectiveness of monetary policies before and after the transformation,we also considered the changes in the independence of monetary policy.In order to objectively evaluate the effectiveness of monetary policy transformation,the first step is to use Bernanke's two principal component methods for common factor extraction to extract economic data into three categories: international economic factors,real economic factors,and inflation factors,which comprehensively and objectively interpreted the policy transformation of Kazakhstan Economic environment before and after.The second step is to select M1(money supply),R(interest rate),REER(real effective exchange rate)and three common factors to construct the SFAVAR model,and analyze the policy independence and effectiveness issues before and after the monetary policy transformation.The focus is on whether the "automatic stabilizer" function will occur after the implementation of free floating exchange rates,which can effectively mitigate the impact of external shocks on the economy and inflation.It will provide reference for emerging market countries and China to further realize market pricing of exchange rates.Innovation point 3: Through the comparison of the monetary policy transformation practices of Kazakhstan,Russia,and Turkey,the dilemma faced by the monetary policy choices of emerging market countries is revealed.The economic structure and development characteristics of emerging market countries determine the dilemma of "energy price traction" and "capital-led dominance" that monetary policy faces.In addition,during the implementation of the monetary policy,the central bank bears a variety of goals,and needs to choose and balance the goals,which leads to emerging market countries vulnerable to external shocks and deviates from the implementation of monetary policies. |
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