| Economics depends on the behavior of many large interdependent companies(productivity,investment behavior,etc.),and large companies play a pivotal role in economic stability because of the "granular effect" in the economy."Granular effect" means that if the size of the company is a Power-law distribution,that is,it exhibits the fat-tailed characteristics,which meansa small number of large enterprises coexist with a large number of small enterprises.This characteristic will invalidate the central limit theorem,and the impact of idiosyncratic shocks to large enterprises will not offset each other,and even if an individual company fails or is in a difficult situation,it will easily evolve into systemic risk.Especially for systemically important financial institutions,due to their large scale,complex structure and business,and strong correlation with other financial institutions,the failure or distress of individual banks will have a significant adverse impact on the financial system and the real economy.Trigger a financial crisis.The sharp acceleration of the US subprime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 is proof of this.The “granularity effect” is often more pronounced in more closed economies(Bremus,2017).Therefore,based on the Granular hypothesis,this paper studies the relationship between the idiosyncratic shocks to Chinese non-financial institutions and financial institutions and the economic fluctuations of our country,explores the role of idiosyncratic shocks to large banks in the transmission of monetary policy,and focuses on the the impact of idiosyncratic shocks on the productivity of SMEs has important theoretical and practical significance.Not only should we pay attention to the impact of procyclical economic fluctuations,to prevent various shocks from being induced or even amplified through the interaction of the economic system or the interaction between the economic system and the macroeconomics,but also the impact of idiosyncratic institutions,especially idiosyncratic financial institutions.Preventing various shocks through the interconnectedness of financial institutions,resulting in the fragility of the financial system,dredging the channels for the aggregation and transmission of systemic risks,and keeping systemic financial risks from occurring,has become a very urgent issue now and in the future.Important task.Based on Gabaix(2011)Granular hypothesis,this paper constructs granular residulas for China’s non-financial institutions(enterprises)and financial institutions.Based on the listed companies in China,we construct the income idiosyncratic shock indicators of the 100 largest listed companies in China,the 31 provinces or municipalities,and the income granular residuals of various industries were constructed respectively.We also construct Banking granular residual based on the asset and loan idiosyncratic shocks to banking network.Using the above four types of residuals,the thesis analysis the relationship between the idiosyncratic shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations of the largest 100 listed companies in China,the relationship between the idiosyncratic shocks of large provincial enterprises and the macroeconomic fluctuations,the idiosyncratic shocks to large banking industry with macroeconomic fluctuations under different financial openness,the role of idiosyncratic shocks of commercial banks in bank loan channels transmitted by monetary policy and the impact of idiosyncratic shocks to enterprises on the productivity of small and medium-sized enterprises in the same industry.The research on the impact of the idiosyncratic shock find that among the listed companies in China,the size of the enterprises is Power-law distribution,and there are a small number of large enterprises and a large number of small enterprises.Among the listed enterprises in 31 provinces or municipalities in China,the size of the enterprises also obeys the Power-law distribution,and there is "granular effect".However,the "granular effect" of listed companies in 11 industries are quite different.The empirical research shows that the income idiosyncratic shock to the largest 100 companies in China has a significant positive impact on the economic growth rate.Furthermore,when considering provinces or municipalities in China as independent economics,the impact of income idiosyncratic to enterprises within each region also has a significant positive impact on economic fluctuations at the inter-provincial level.The research on idiosyncratic shocks to commercial banks found that in areas where finance is relatively open,the consequences of large-scale commercial banks’ loan or Asset idiosyncratic shocks did not have a more severe impact on economic fluctuations.When considering the impact of banking idiosyncratic shocks,financial openness,and economic fluctuations,the results show that the idiosyncratic shock to commercial bank loans and asset have a significant positive impact on economic fluctuations.The increase in degree has a significant negative impact on economic fluctuations.When considering the interaction between the idiosyncratic shocks to commercial banks and the degree of financial openness,the research results show that with the increase of financial openness,idiosyncratic shocks to bank loans will not have a positive impact on economic fluctuations,but a negative influence.In addition,the idiosyncratic shocks to commercial banks will enhance the transmission of bank borrowing channels through the monetary policy mechanism.Idiosyncratic shock research on various industries shows that the idiosyncratic shock to large enterprises in various industries will significantly reduce the productivity of small and medium enterprises in the same industry.The greater the income idiosyncratic impact of large enterprises within various industries,the higher debt ratio of small and medium-sized enterprises in the same industry,the more productivity declines.The impact of income idiosyncratic shocks to large enterprises in various industries has increased the investment-cash flow sensitivity of SMEs in the same industry,making the financing constraints of SMEs more serious.This effect is more pronounced in small and medium-sized non-state-owned and new enterprises.In small and medium-sized high-tech enterprises,this kind of influence has a strong positive external effect.The reason is that small and medium-sized high-tech enterprises benefit from external spillover effects of technological innovation of large enterprises in the same industry,and productivity has been improved.The conclusions have certain policy significance.Chinese large listed companies have “granular effect”,meaning that large companies and key industries have played an indispensable role in the macro economy.The collapse or dilemma of individual enterprises will have a significant adverse impact on the overall economy.In recent years,many large technology-oriented high-end manufacturing and high-tech enterprises have emerged in the manufacturing,wholesale and retail industries,and information technology services.These enterprises have also gathered in the manufacturing and information technology services industries.In the field,empirical research shows that the impact of idiosyncratic shocks to these industries will significantly affect economic fluctuations.Therefore,the government should formulate policy goals based on the overall idea of "large innovative enterprises as the driver and drive the development of small and medium-sized enterprises" to accurately understand system important enterprises,to guard against systemic risks caused by the idiosyncratic shocks to large leading enterprises.In addition,accurate hierarchical management should be carried out through differences in industry "granular effect".For industries where the size of the company is distributed by power law,the idiosyncratic shocks to large or key enterprises will not cancel each other out in general,and the collapse or dilemma of large enterprises will have a significant adverse impact on the overall economy.For these industries,it is necessary to pay attention to the shocks of procyclical fluctuations of the economy,to prevent various shocks from being induced or amplified by the interaction between the industry or the industry and the macro economy,and to pay attention to the idiosyncratic shocks to the industry(enterprise)to prevent various shocks.Risks caused by the interconnectedness of industries.For some industries that do not have "granular effect",that is,the idiosyncratic shocks to enterprises can cancel each other out,and it does not significantly affect economic fluctuations.It is only necessary to focus on the impact of cyclical economic fluctuations.Regarding the "granular effect" of enterprises,government departments should continue to give enterprises transformation,innovation,support,incentives,services and other policies,in particular increase support for scientific research investment in high-tech industries,and use high-tech enterprises and information technology industries to promote industrial upgrading,to give full play to the decisive role of the market in the allocation of resources,to stimulate the vitality of various market elements in society,and to promote the stable operation of the market economy.Large enterprises should continuously improve the quality of their products and services,increase the market share of their products,and improve the operating efficiency and benefits of enterprises.In order to solve the problem of misallocation of resources between banks and enterprises,continue to improve the production efficiency of large enterprise departments,make their production efficiency match the resources occupied,and form a good joint and interactive relationship with SMEs,using strong positive external effects to stimulate and drive the development of SMEs.SMEs should overcome the dilemma of resource mismatch,strengthen self-discipline,integrity-based,law-abiding operation,break ideological confinement,and actively reform and develop innovatively.The banking industry should continue to play an important role in China’s financial system,build more financing service platforms,provide more fair and reasonable channels and convenient system guarantees,and play the role of SME loans as a new growth point for the industry. |
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