| The price trend of the commodity market reflects the cyclical changes of the economy,so it is a reference for various industrial economies to pay close attention to and choose hedging strategies,and it is also a bridge between the virtual economy and the real economy.However,in recent years,the phenomenon of financialization of commodities in the global market has caused the price of commodities to soar and plummet,and the linkage with financial assets such as the stock market has been increasing.Under this background,the mechanism and logic of pricing and hedging have undergone profound changes.This article first examines the financialization characteristics of China's commodity market,and then discusses the commodity price determination mechanism based on this background,and then discusses the industrial enterprise hedging strategy under the financialization pricing mechanism.Aiming at the speculation of hedging caused by cognitive deviations and wrong ideas in the current hedging process,new hedging concepts and measures are proposed in order to improve the real economy function of China's futures market.First,this paper studies the financial characteristics,information transmission,and driving factors of intraday high-frequency data in China's futures market.We divide the commodity market into four sectors: agricultural products,mineral building materials,energy and chemicals,and non-ferrous metals.The study found that:(1)The information transmission between China 's commodity market and the stock market has a specific direction.The macroeconomic-related mineral building materials group and the energy and chemical group are at the upstream of the information transmission,which has an information impact on the stock market.The impact of the market is further transmitted to the non-ferrous metal market and the agricultural product market.(2)The transaction and volatility of commodities and the stock market are the main drivers of information transmission between the two markets.The greater the difference between the volatility in the stock market and the stable commodity market,the stronger the correlation between the two markets.This further corroborates the existence of the phenomenon of financialization of China's commodity market.Secondly,the financialization of commodities poses great challenges to the theoretical system of "supply and demand determine prices".This article focuses on the changes in pricing factors and pricing efficiency in the futures market in the context of financialization.We select commodity fundamental factors,macroeconomic factors,and financialization factors,and use panel data models to examine the impact of each factor on commodity pricing.The study found that:(1)In the long run,the commodity stocks of fundamental factors are negatively correlated with prices,but the impact of macro factors on commodity prices is uncertain;financial factors have a significant positive impact,including money supply and commodity positions The quantity has driven the long-term increase in commodity prices;in addition,the equity risk premium rate has also promoted the long-term trend of commodity prices,which reflects the increase in the linkage between the commodity market and stock market financial assets.(2)In the short term,the influence of fundamental factors is limited;the influence of macroeconomic factors is negative,which explains the characteristics of "reverse thinking" in commodity markets;the influence of financial factors is still significant,but the influence of positions is uncertain This indicates that investors in the short-term commodity market have great differences on the direction of prices.(3)Commodity periods in China 's futures market is now closely linked,reflecting the effectiveness of futures market pricing;however,the impact of financialization on different commodities is different,which is not conducive to the pricing efficiency of agricultural products as a whole,and the rebar pricing of mineral building materials group efficiency has a role in promoting,and the non-ferrous metals market is more neutrally affected by financialization.Third,the financialization of commodities exacerbates the complexity of pricing in the futures market and further hinders industrial companies' perception of the function of the futures market.This article deeply studies the impact of financialization on the hedging function of China's futures market.The research shows that:(1)The financialization of commodity markets has promoted the hedging function of agricultural products,mineral building materials,energy and chemical products,but has little effect on the hedging function of the non-ferrous metal market;with the help of microeconomics production cost theory In this paper,the study found that hedging can change the production cost structure of the enterprise,help stabilize the business operation,and ultimately promote industrial concentration.(2)Hedging research on China's listed companies found that the proportion of hedging speculation was as high as 76.52%;further research found that the occurrence of hedging speculation behavior has a great relationship with the recognition of industrial enterprise executives,noneconomic financial learning and practicing The senior management team in the background will usually cause deviations in hedging cognition,leading to corporate hedging speculation.(3)Further discussion found that the root cause of China 's industrial enterprise hedging speculation comes from the wrong application concept.The traditional application concept of “worrying the price to buy the hedging and worrying about the price falling to sell the hedging” will guide enterprises to formulate a suit based on subjective judgment security strategy,which led to speculative endings.Fourth,this paper puts forward a set of application concepts of industrial enterprise hedging based on profit indicators,and analyzes the effectiveness of the concept through simulation.The goal of enterprise management is profit.Through enterprise production and operation simulation,the enterprise hedging model based on profit indicators constructed in this paper can not only improve the profitability of the enterprise,but also effectively stabilize the production and operation of the enterprise;this concept greatly reduces the industrial enterprises Hedging speculation.Fifth,in order to promote the functioning of China's futures market to serve the real economy in the context of financialization,this paper proposes to promote the futures market to serve the real economy from the perspective of the social entity's futures market function recognition,concept modification,intermediary service institution strength improvement,and scientific supervision functional thinking.Industry is the foundation of the futures market,and the way that the futures market serves the real industry is hedging.The reason why China 's commodity futures market serves the real economy is difficult to be fully utilized is that the social entities have cognitive and conceptual deviations in the futures market.We have proposed a “watch concept” for the futures market.The futures market provides similar pricing of commodities at different points in the future at "clock time",industrial enterprises can refer to this "time" to formulate business plans.This article not only perfects the existing market financialization research theory,but also emphasizes the importance of understanding the pricing function of the futures market;this article provides guidance for industrial enterprises to participate in the hedging of the commodity futures market and helps strengthen the entity of China 's commodity market economic service function. |
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