| With more than 40 years of reform and opening up,China’s manufacturing industry has made remarkable achievements,but also gradually accumulated some deep-seated problems.These problems have become the main obstacles of China’s economic transformation and real economic growth,while excess capacity is one of them.In order to curb the negative impact of excess capacity on economic development,the Chinese government has successively introduced a series of governance measures to digest,integrate or eliminate excess capacity,and pay more attention to promoting the international transfer of excess capacity.With the promotion of the "one belt and one way" initiative and the international capacity cooperation plan,more and more enterprises choose to transfer surplus advantageous products and capacity to other needed countries and regions through export trade and foreign direct investment.However,under different stages of development and institutional background,can China copy the experience of developed countries in solving overcapacity through international transfer? Can export trade and foreign direct investment really effectively resolve China’s overcapacity? If the overcapacity can be resolved,why hasn’t the export-oriented economy alleviated the degree of overcapacity?First of all,this paper discusses the evolution and development status of overcapacity in China’s manufacturing industry.First,according to the timeline,this paper summarizes the development process of overcapacity in China’s manufacturing industry since the 1990 s,it holds that China has experienced three rounds of large-scale overcapacity since the 1990 s,namely,the first round of overcapacity in 1995-2001,the second round of overcapacity in 2003-2006 and the third round of overcapacity since 2007;second,the comparative analysis method is used to summarize the changes in the performance characteristics of China’s manufacturing overcapacity,this paper points out that the current third round of overcapacity is different from the previous phased,structural and periodic overcapacity,it is more continuous,comprehensive and institutional,and gradually expands from domestic overcapacity to external overcapacity;Third,it analyzes the influence factors of overcapacity in China’s manufacturing industry under the conditions of open economy,and believes that external demand,technical level,the proportion of foreign capital,market concentration have an impact on the overcapacity of China’s manufacturing industry;fourth,based on the data of listed manufacturing enterprises,this paper uses the dynamic slacksbased measure(DSBM)approach to estimate the capacity utilization rate of manufacturing enterprises in China from 2007 to 2016.The results show that the capacity utilization rate of China’s manufacturing industry shows a “W” type change track from 2007 to 2016,the overall capacity utilization rate keeps a wave-like upward trend with an average capacity utilization rate of 69.9%.In terms of industries,many heavy industries are still face with different degrees of overcapacity,and the situation of “de-capacity” is still more severe;in terms of scale,compared with small and medium-sized enterprises,the degree of overcapacity of large enterprises is more serious;in terms of regions,except for the eastern region,the overcapacity problems are more serious in the central,northeastern and western regions;in terms of ownership,the capacity utilization rate of private enterprises is the highest,while the capacity utilization rate of state-owned enterprises is the lowest,and the overcapacity is the most serious.Secondly,it summarizes the realistic basis and possible risks of international transfer of excess capacity in China’s manufacturing industry from three aspects: First,it analyzes the background of the international transfer of excess capacity in China’s manufacturing industry from a macro perspective.The paper holds that the current world economy has entered the deep adjustment period after the financial crisis,and China’s economic development has entered the "new normal",and the overcapacity problem in some industries needs to be solved urgently,and the structural transformation is imminent.On the one hand,it makes the international transfer of capacity become a timely choice for China to expand its international market,break the economic growth dilemma,and inject new impetus into the world economic growth.On the other hand,it also makes the international transfer of China’s excess capacity face greater uncertainty;second,using realistic data and cases,this paper analyzes the basic advantages of the international transfer of excess capacity in China’s manufacturing industry from the six aspects of political environment,industrial economic strength,industrial technology level,financial support,economic openness and enterprise competitiveness;third,it analyzes the risks faced by the international transfer of excess capacity in China’s manufacturing industry from the macro level,industry level and enterprise level.Third,on the basis of systemically sorting out the thought of international capacity transfer contained in the classical theoretical system and analyzing the feasible path of international transfer of excess capacity,this paper carry out the empirical analysis of international transfer of excess capacity respectively from two aspects of export trade and foreign direct investment: first,it analyzes the development status of export trade,and based on the data of listed manufacturing enterprises in 2008-2016,it studies the impact of export trade on capacity utilization rate and its duration by using propensity-score matching and difference-in-differences regression approach(PSM-DID),the results show that,on the whole,the export behavior of Chinese enterprises is conducive to improving their capacity utilization rate,but the duration is limited.Further sub-sample study shows that the “capacity utilization effect” of export trade is heterogeneous among different industries.Specifically,compared with non-overcapacity industries,the export trade of overcapacity industries has a more prominent role in alleviating overcapacity.These conclusions are still robust in the case of changing the sample matching method.Second,it analyzes the the development status of Outward Foreign Direct Investment(OFDI),and empirically tests the impact of OFDI on the rate of capacity utilization using the data of listed manufacturing enterprises and the matching data of “the directory of overseas investment enterprises(Institutions)” issued by the Ministry of Commerce in 2008-2015.Based on the PSM-DID estimation method,the results show that: Overall,OFDI has a positive impact on the capacity utilization rate,and after a year of lag,the impact on capacity utilization rate has an increasing trend,which indicates that the impact of OFDI on the capacity utilization rate of enterprise is continuous and increasing.Further sub-sample study shows that compared with nonovercapacity industries,OFDI in overcapacity industries plays a more significant role in solving overcapacity,but the deeper the degree of overcapacity,the lower the willingness of enterprises to carry out OFDI.Then,it summarizes the experience of developed countries such as the United States,Germany,Japan in solving overcapacity through international transfer,and highlights the beneficial enlightenment for China’s transfer of excess capacity.Under the background of economic globalization,overcapacity has become a common problem faced by many countries.The developed countries such as the United States,Germany,Japan have promoted the international transfer of capacity through export trade and foreign direct investment,thereby led the division of labor in the global value chain,and promoted technological innovation,which have solved overcapacity to a certain extent.Finally,based on the above theoretical basis and empirical tests,and taking into account the actual situation of China’s institutional mechanism and capacity transfer,this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions. |
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