| Since the reform and opening up,China's economy has made remarkable achievements.One of the most valuable experiences is to gradually let the market mechanism play a decisive role in the allocation of resources through gradual reform.In terms of the specific time series,it is generally carried out in the order of first general commodity price,then factor resource price.The first dual track and then merger is the most important It is a bright technical path.Similar to the reform in other economic fields,the interest rate marketization reform,as the longest lasting,most extensive and most influential reform measure throughout the course of China's financial reform,strictly follows the direction of gradual reform,and has been promoted for nearly 30 years according to the general idea of first foreign currency,then local currency;first loan,then deposit;first long-term,large amount,then short-term and small amount After the administrative control of deposit interest rate was released in 2015,it has officially entered a new stage of building a market-oriented interest rate formation and regulation mechanism.How to establish this mechanism is related to the final success or failure of China's interest rate marketization reform,and has become the most important and imminent major issue in front of China's monetary policy authorities,various micro subjects,experts and scholars.However,global economies with different economic background,financial basis,path selection,implementation steps and supporting measures have successively completed the establishment of this mechanism,but the operation effect is quite different.Therefore,the experience and lessons from the formation of market-oriented interest rate and the establishment of regulation mechanism in different economies are bound to provide valuable reference for the current and future reform of China's interest rate marketization.Based on the above considerations,this paper will conduct a historical review and systematic research on the formation and regulation mechanism of China's market-oriented interest rate from an international perspective.The chapter 2 attempts to outline a relatively complete basic framework of price based monetary policy regulation mode by clarifying the relevant concepts of monetary policy and summarizing the relevant theories and research results.On the one hand,from the fact that there is always a so-called "dichotomy" between monetary decision-making theory and monetary operation practice,after clarifying and defining the relevant basic concepts and theories of monetary policy framework,it is found that how to select and which monetary policy tools to select are not the most important problems,because it is mainly related to the historical evolution of a country's financial system and the sound development of financial market The operating objective of monetary policy has always been regarded as the logical starting point of a country's monetary policy acting on the real economy,and the choice of attribute is the fundamental basis to distinguish quantitative regulation from price regulation.On the other hand,whether it is the traditional monetary policy operation in the past or a large number of unconventional monetary policy operations emerging in recent years,there is no doubt that taking the short end(mainly overnight)money market interest rate as the main target of monetary policy operation has always been the operating principle that the central banks of all countries adhere to.On this basis,this chapter gradually outlines that the central bank relies on adjusting the short end(overnight)benchmark interest rate(monetary policy operation target),relying on the interest rate corridor control mechanism and open market operation,giving full play to the liquidity effect and expected effect,guiding the money market interest rate to the desired range of the monetary policy authorities,so as to promote the corresponding changes in the benchmark yield curve,so as to achieve the goal This will affect the pricing of all kinds of financial products and the behavior of market players,and then change the investment and consumption,and finally achieve the ultimate goal of monetary policy.I will follow this main line and study the key links and important nodes in combination with China's reality.In Chapter 3,taking the United States,the euro area,India and Turkey as examples,this paper introduces in detail the formation and regulation practice of market-oriented interest rates in developed and post developing countries.First of all,both developed countries and post developing countries have implemented the interest rate liberalization process with deregulation as the main content.Deregulation of interest rate is of great significance to improve the efficiency of economic operation and promote the market to play a decisive role in resource allocation.However,it should be noted that interest rate liberalization is only necessary for the formation of market-oriented interest rate and the construction of regulation mechanism Besides,it also requires the monetary policy framework to be transformed accordingly.Secondly,in the process of implementing the transformation of monetary policy framework,these countries finally chose the price control mode with short end(overnight)interest rate as the operation target of monetary policy.What is slightly different is that the Federal Reserve chose the money market benchmark interest rate target as the short end benchmark interest rate of the central bank,hoping that the market players can read the target interest rate set by the central bank However,the central banks of the euro area,India and Turkey choose the specific term business interest rate of the central bank and financial institutions as the short-term benchmark interest rate of the central bank,hoping to retain certain operational flexibility and initiative by using the more easily controlled business interest rate.It should be said that the choice of different modes itself has no advantages or disadvantages,mainly depends on the development level of a country's financial market and market trading habits.Finally,in terms of the construction of market-oriented interest rate regulation mechanism,the above countries have successively established and improved the interest rate corridor regulation mechanism.However,it is obvious that the effect of interest rate regulation in the U.S.and the euro area is better than that in India and Turkey.In order to cope with capital outflow,Turkey has introduced a new monetary policy framework with experimental characteristics,which is impossible to challenge Mundell Triangle,but ended in failure.It can be seen that the establishment of a market-oriented interest rate formation and control mechanism,whether developed or post developed countries,although seemingly more similar,but the effect of the difference must contain a profound objective law,the precious success experience and failure lessons are more precious.The chapter 4 summarizes the comprehensive experience of establishing and improving the formation and regulation mechanism of market-oriented interest rate on the basis of carefully combing the monetary policy practice of developed and post developed economies: first,at the level of monetary policy decision-making,the central bank should be given greater,more and more independent monetary policy-making power,while at the level of specific implementation of monetary policy In the process,it is not or less disturbed by the outside world.On this basis,the central bank should establish and improve a more scientific,efficient and transparent decision-making mechanism,and try to publicize the implementation of monetary policy as well as the outlook and vision on a regular or irregular basis through a variety of channels and ways,so as to effectively guide the expectations of various market players and achieve the regulatory effect of monetary policy with half the effort.Second,at the operational level of monetary policy,it is imperative for the monetary policy framework to transform from quantity oriented to price oriented,and the most critical core is to gradually promote the conversion of monetary policy operational objectives to short-term(overnight)interest rates.At the same time,we should establish and improve the interest rate corridor regulation mechanism,and always pay attention to its coordination with the open market operation.This policy combination can help to reduce the frequency and cost of open market operation,and also effectively eliminate the impact of market friction on short end interest rate regulation.It has become the best choice to play the liquidity effect in line with the expected effect.Thirdly,at the level of monetary policy transmission,we should follow the trend of international short-term market benchmark interest rate reform and select the repo rate with wider coverage,overnight term and pledge guarantee as the short-term market benchmark interest rate.On this basis,we should continue to establish and consolidate the benchmark position of the interest rate in the whole interest rate system through a variety of channels,and continue to expand its application and popularization in the pricing of various financial products.At the same time,we should take multiple strategies simultaneously,firmly establish a financial market system with a certain breadth and depth,which has relatively complete term structure,strong market liquidity,rich product content and wide and diversified trading subjects,and continuously improve the market benchmark yield curve.Fourthly,in the construction of interest rate corridor control mechanism,the corridor ceiling should be designed as anonymous application system,and there should be a relatively broad list of mortgage assets.The lower limit of the corridor can choose the interest rate of the balance of the clearing account or the interest rate of the excess reserve according to the actual situation of a country's reserve deposit.In extreme cases,it can also choose the overnight reverse repo rate.The policy interest rate should be closely related to a country's monetary policy operation target selection mode,but it should be consistent with the upper and lower limits of the interest rate corridor in terms of interest rate term and decision-making mode(frequency).The guiding and regulating role of policy interest rate on money market interest rate is an important reference standard for its selection.At the same time,the essence of the interest rate corridor is to adapt to the changes of economic and financial situation and realize the original intention of monetary policy authorities to adjust short-term interest rate fluctuations.However,in the initial stage of establishment,we should follow the principle of simple specification and easy operation,so that all kinds of market entities can form mature and stable interest rate corridor regulation expectations.In Chapter 5,based on the definition and classification of benchmark interest rate and the central bank's preference for benchmark interest rate selection,the paper analyzes the different selection modes of the central bank's benchmark interest rate by focusing on the analysis of policy interest rate and market interest rate,and combining with China's actual situation.According to the expectation theory of term structure of interest rate,international practice and empirical test of China's data,it is more scientific and reasonable to choose overnight term interest rate.At this time,the central bank's benchmark interest rate and monetary policy operation target coincide with the target level of R001(or DR001),similar to the fed model.It is worth noting that in addition to deposit financial institutions,r also includes a large number of non bank institutions,with relatively broad collateral and stronger market representativeness,while DR is limited to deposit financial institutions,with a narrow range of collateral but high quality requirements,which can minimize the impact of the quality of collateral and the credit risk of counterparties on interest rate fluctuations It is more risk-free and benchmark.Especially since 2016,the people's Bank of China has frequently emphasized the positive role and important position of DR in the selection and cultivation process of China's market benchmark interest rate,indicating that the central bank's monetary policy operation target has a tendency to gradually switch to transactions between deposit financial institutions.The differentiation of R and Dr was obvious.Therefore,from the perspective of policy guidance and preference habits of monetary authorities,dr001 is more likely to become the benchmark interest rate(operation target)of central bank;from the perspective of market representativeness(or guiding the interest rate level of money market in a wider range),R001 is more appropriate.On the other hand,if we choose the specific term business interest rate of the central bank as the benchmark interest rate of the central bank.At present,the more appropriate one is the open market7-day reverse repo rate,which is more in line with the preference of the Central Bank of China to carry out 7-day term market operation.However,choosing the7-day term interest rate as the operation target term is obviously inconsistent with the theory of term structure expectation of interest rate and the experience of other countries taking overnight interest rate as the operation target.However,in reality,the Bank of England,which also takes the specific term business interest rate as the benchmark interest rate,has carried out many kinds of open market operations in history,and finally converged to the short end(overnight)open market operation,and took it as the benchmark interest rate.In Chapter 6,based on the basic framework of price monetary policy regulation,through empirical analysis,we further demonstrate the selection of short-term benchmark interest rate and the transmission of short-term benchmark interest rate to medium and long-term interest rate.On the one hand,in the empirical analysis of the choice of short-term benchmark interest rate,if the central bank's benchmark interest rate chooses the target mode of money market benchmark interest rate,starting from the attribute of money market benchmark interest rate,the empirical results show that both R001 and dr001 have good benchmark,market representativeness,stability,risk-free and relevance with the real economy,and are technically qualified to become central banks But dr001 target is more policy oriented as the benchmark interest rate,while R001 target is more market representative.In practice,it is suggested that all institutions(especially deposit institutions)should be treated equally to smooth the differentiation of DR and R caused by market segmentation and smooth interest rate transmission.At the same time,we should pay more attention to the stability of short-term(especially overnight)market interest rate,and gradually take short-term(especially overnight)interest rate as the operation target of monetary policy.Finally,we should track the central bank's follow-up policy orientation and market acceptance in a timely manner.If the benchmark interest rate of the central bank chooses the specific term business interest rate model,the empirical test results show that the 7-day reverse repo rate can better guide the short end market(benchmark)interest rate and the relevant term money market interest rate.In practice,we can refer to the practice of the Central Bank of the euro area,temporarily not announce the operational objectives of monetary policy,and guide financial institutions to judge the change of monetary authority's policy stance by identifying the basis between the 7-day reverse repo rate and R007 / dr007(or R001/ dr001),so as to realize the intention of interest rate regulation,and timely inspect the changes of market players in the above process There is no possibility to gradually turn it to short end(overnight)open market operation and use it as the benchmark interest rate,so as to better meet the theory of term structure expectation of interest rate and international experience.On the other hand,based on the elasticity analysis and SVAR impulse response analysis,the results show that the selected short-term market benchmark interest rate can have an impact on the yields of treasury bonds with different maturities,but with the increase of maturities,the effect of interest rate transmission gradually declines.At the same time,with the gradual deepening of interest rate marketization reform,the financial system is increasingly sound,the interest rate sensitivity of various micro entities continues to increase,the transmission effect of short-term interest rate to medium and long-term interest rate in China has been significantly improved,and the interest rate transmission mechanism is more smooth and efficient.The above empirical test results lay a solid technical guarantee for the formation of market-oriented interest rate and the construction of regulation mechanism.Chapter 7 focuses on the construction of interest rate formation mechanism in credit market,which is based on the fact that China's financial system is mainly bank indirect financing.On the one hand,although the people's Bank of China has officially announced that it will completely liberalize the administrative control of deposit and loan interest rates,for various reasons,as a transitional measure,it still retains the benchmark interest rate of deposit and loan as a monetary policy tool,and the characteristics of the double track interest rate system still exist: the main manifestation is that financial institutions change to coordinate reference loan benchmark interest rate pricing through behavior.At the same time,due to the different sources of funds,the bank's internal assets are still priced by the double track parallel mode of benchmark interest rate and market interest rate,which makes it difficult for the changes of market interest rate and loan interest rate to be consistent.The basis of this double track system of interest rate has changed from the previous administrative constraints to the current market subject inertia adaptation,and has caused many adverse effects on economic development,and even all kinds of social subject financing.The conclusion based on tvp-var analysis also shows that the transmission effect of short-term interest rate to medium and long-term interest rate is not good,and the transmission effect to price level is not significant.On the other hand,the people's Bank of China,taking the dual track of loan interest rate as a breakthrough,promotes the combination of market interest rate and loan interest rate,and takes the lead in promoting the reform of the formation mechanism of loan market quotation rate(LPR)with new quotation principles,new quotation banks,new term varieties,new formation methods and new quotation frequency as the main contents,among which the most prominent feature is that the former LPR is replaced by the former LPR It is of great significance to improve the central bank's interest rate regulation system,dredge the interest rate transmission mechanism,implement the loan interest rate merger quickly and steadily,and even realize the deposit interest rate merger in the next stage.In Chapter 8,based on a brief review of the evolution of China's interest rate regulation mechanism,this dissertation makes a more in-depth study on the current construction of China's implicit interest rate corridor regulation mechanism.On the one hand,following the mainstream mode of price regulation,China has been continuously promoting the construction of interest rate corridor.After the continuous policy guidance and continuous improvement of the people's Bank of China,the current interest rate corridor is in the stage of recessive construction,and the relevant technical reserves have begun to take shape: overnight SLF is designed as the upper limit of the interest rate corridor;because China has always implemented the deposit reserve system,the excess reserve rate is more appropriate as the lower limit of the interest rate corridor;however,the short-term interest rate of the central bank has not been defined in China If the benchmark interest rate is to choose the market benchmark interest rate target or to operate the business interest rate within a specific period,based on the principle of comprehensive prudence,the central bank's 7-day reverse repo rate and Dr(R)target have the technical preparation for policy interest rate.From the operation effect of the implicit interest rate corridor constructed by the above hypothesized variables,the interest rate level and volatility of China's money market show a downward trend,and the effect of the interest rate corridor regulation mechanism is initially apparent.On the other hand,from the practical experience of countries that have implemented the interest rate corridor,the interest rate corridor should be an expected management tool in essence,so the central bank and market players need to experience a gradual adaptive process.Focusing on the establishment and improvement of China's future interest rate corridor control mechanism,focusing on the actual operation of the current interest rate corridor,this paper puts forward four suggestions.First,we should pay more attention to the stability of the overall interest rate level of the money market.While focusing on the stability of financing interest rate of deposit financial institutions,the people's Bank of China should expand the scope of primary dealers,include non bank institutions,or directly participate in money market transactions,so as to take into account the overall interest rate stability of the money market.The second is to expand the scope of SLF's operation subjects,constantly improve the pledge system,and continuously consolidate the function of SLF as the upper limit of interest rate corridor.Third,we should make clear the short-term benchmark interest rate of the central bank in time,and continue to convey the policy intention of the central bank to the market through reasonable policy guidance and declaration,appropriate open market operation and interest rate corridor regulation.When the conditions are ripe,we should explore to change the policy interest rate term from 7 days to overnight term,so as to better meet the expectation theory of interest rate term structure and the original intention of adjusting the overnight interest rate in the money market.Fourth,gradually digest the excessive legal deposit reserve.Through the joint efforts of monetary policy authorities and market players,we can complete the gradual adaptive process as soon as possible,and finally complete the process from implicit establishment to explicit establishment.Chapter 9 the main conclusions and gives policy suggestions on establishing and improving the formation and regulation mechanism of market-oriented interest rate in China at present and in the future.Based on the systematic summary of the research results,three suggestions are put forward.First of all,we should improve the independence and foresight of monetary policy.The main policy measures include: according to the needs of macro-control and economic development,gradually converge the excessive monetary policy ultimate goal to 1-2;give the people's Bank of China more decision-making power of monetary policy,gradually improve the scientificity and transparency of interest rate policy decision-making;give full play to the expected effect,and effectively improve the gap between the central bank and various market entities through multiple channels and policies We should enhance the transparency of monetary policy and the ability of forward-looking guidance.Secondly,we should continue to highlight the use of price based monetary policy tools.The main policy measures include: gradually converging too many monetary policy tools,avoiding the fragmentation of policy tools,short-term operation and inconsistent release signals,paying more attention to the use of price based monetary policy tools;clarifying the short-term benchmark interest rate of the central bank as soon as possible,and timely promoting the monetary policy framework to carry out relevant operations with the new benchmark interest rate target as the core;Strengthen the calculation of China's natural interest rate,and gradually explore the reasonable interest rate level in line with China's actual situation,so as to carry out relevant operation and regulation according to the output gap;while continuing to widely promote the application of LPR loan interest rate pricing,further cultivate the construction of inter-bank standard interest rate system represented by Dr,improve the issuance frequency of treasury bonds,so as to speed up the cultivation of market benchmark interest rate,and improve the market competitiveness We will continue to improve the Treasury bond yield curve.Finally,efforts should be made to strengthen the construction of supporting measures.The main policy measures include gradually digesting the previously excessive statutory deposit reserve and reducing it to a reasonable level.At the same time,the purpose of using the policy tool of deposit reserve ratio should be changed from stabilizing market liquidity to stabilizing the interest rate of money market;various financial institutions should be guided to strengthen the construction of market pricing mechanism;the market-oriented reform of exchange rate should be promoted;the local government financing platform should be strictly standardized to implement the full scope budget constraint management;the support of financial supporting policies should be strengthened to optimize the financial system We should improve the term structure of national debt issuance,increase the frequency of national debt issuance,and strive to enhance the liquidity of the bond market.The innovation of this dissertation is mainly reflected in two aspects.First,compared with the fact that most of the existing studies are not comprehensive,clear and accurate enough,this paper,through the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,comprehensively and objectively expounds the problems related to the selection of money market benchmark interest rate target or specific term business interest rate by the central bank's short-term benchmark interest rate,and puts forward some suggestions for the current and future research It is a step forward to study this kind of problem in a certain period of time.Second,compared with most of the existing studies that study the formation mechanism of market-oriented interest rate and the regulation mechanism of interest rate corridor independently,this paper focuses on the common logical starting point of the short-term benchmark interest rate of the central bank,and takes it as the source point to organically coordinate the formation and regulation mechanism of market-oriented interest rate,so as to study China's quantitative regulation with a broader vision and pattern We should focus on price regulation... |
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